As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around the $52,000 level, various opinions are emerging in the market.
There is an opinion that the buying trend from exchange traded funds (ETFs) is continuing, and especially when comparing the flow of Bitcoin accumulation by Bitcoin whales to the past, it is still not reaching its peak.
On the other hand, there is an analysis that Bitcoin’s retail investor indicators are pointing to a short-term correction, and that the correction is approaching as it has risen sharply.
According to CoinMarketCap on the 20th, Bitcoin is trading at $51,803 as of 2:30 p.m., down 0.50% from 24 hours ago.
Bitcoin fell to the low $51,000 range this morning, but recovered some of its price in the afternoon.
Bitcoin has been moving sideways at the $52,000 level for a week since the 14th.
Ethereum is trading at $2928, up 1.28% from 24 hours ago. Solana fell 0.82%, and Ripple rose 1.36%.
The percentage of Bitcoin that has been inactive for a year (purple). Yellow is the Bitcoin price.
According to CryptoQuant, the percentage of Bitcoin that has been inactive for a year peaked at 70% in December 2023 and is currently at 69%.
Looking at the correlation between Bitcoin’s price flow and the percentage of Bitcoin that is inactive for a year, Bitcoin price tends to peak when this ratio is at a low point. Conversely, when this proportion was at its peak, the price of Bitcoin was at its lowest point.
The large proportion of Bitcoin that has been inactive for a year means that there are many long-term investors who purchase and hold Bitcoin from a long-term perspective.
In other words, the decline in this proportion means that long-term investors are realizing profits. Such times are usually when many retail investors come in and prices rise. At this time, short-term investors tend to take over the volume of long-term investors.
Cryptoquant analyst McD said, “At the peak of the price in the last cycle, their ratio was 53%, and if their ratio enters the 50% range this cycle, it can be seen that they are slowly approaching the climax,” adding, “The upside is still large.” He explained.
IFP indicator: When the indicator is green, it indicates a bullish market, and when it is red, it indicates a bearish market.
Conversely, there are also indicators that predict a short-term bear market.
The ‘Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse’, an indicator of the flow of funds between spot exchanges and derivatives exchanges, turned negative starting on the 11th of last month when ETFs were allowed.
This indicator is an indicator created based on the fact that as the amount of Bitcoin flowing into derivative exchanges increases, it shows an upward trend.
However, this data alone cannot be fully understood. Byul Park, a researcher at CryptoQuant, said, “IFP specializes in understanding market trends based on retail-based spot and futures trading volume,” and added, “You can analyze from a more diverse perspective by looking at the institutional trading volume flow through ETFs as well.”
Ethereum open interest trend, purple is open interest, white is price.
Another point to note is that Ethereum’s open interest is at its highest level since July 2022.
Open interest represents the total number of futures contracts that are not cleared on a centralized exchange, regardless of position direction. The higher the value, the more confident futures traders have in the price trend.
As open interest increases, price volatility tends to increase due to serial liquidation due to leveraged positions.
This surge indicates that Ethereum futures traders have strong confidence in the upward trend, but caution must be exercised as surges in price and open interest can trigger cascades of liquidations even with shallow corrections.
2024-02-21 09:12:03
#Bitcoin #trades #sideways #52000.. #rise #shortterm #adjustment #tight #매일코인
