Bitcoin aiming to break through all previous highs… Is it in America’s hands? [황두현의 웹3+]

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $69,000 level during trading on the 20th for the first time in three months, raising expectations of breaking the previous high ($73,777). On the 22nd, the price of Bitcoin is trading in the $67,500 range on Binance Tether (USDT). This is an increase of about 39% compared to August 9, when it fell to $49,000.

Analysis suggests that the recent strength of Bitcoin is due to the possibility of the election of former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and the net inflow of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As the United States’ influence on the virtual asset market continues to grow, some are even saying that Bitcoin’s breakthrough of its all-time high is ‘in the hands of the United States.’

The US accounts for more than 20% of global trading volume… “Driving the rise of virtual assets”

The virtual asset trading volume that occurred in the United States over the one year period from July of last year to June of this year amounted to $1.181 trillion. The United States is the only country with a virtual asset trading volume exceeding $1 trillion. The difference is more than four times that of the United Kingdom (approximately 217 billion), which showed the next highest figure.

In particular, in North America, where the United States accounts for the majority of virtual asset trading volume, virtual asset trading volume (approximately $1.3 trillion) accounted for 23% of the global virtual asset trading volume, exceeding the trading volume of all major virtual asset markets such as Europe, Asia, and South America. .

The main reason why the United States has become the world’s largest virtual asset market is the Bitcoin spot ETF introduced in January. Large amounts of capital from large U.S. asset management companies such as Blackrock, Fidelity, and Grayscale have begun to enter the virtual asset market.

Chainalysis said in a report, “About 70% of virtual asset transactions that occurred in North America were transfers exceeding $1 million. This means that most North American virtual asset trading volume was made up of funds from U.S. asset management companies,” adding, “The U.S. market is a virtual asset market.” “It is affecting the price volatility of assets,” he analyzed.

Photo = Bitwise

As funds from the United States flowed into the virtual asset market, the price of Bitcoin also steadily rose. Bitcoin, which was stuck in the $46,000 range on January 10, broke its previous high in just two months after the introduction of the spot ETF.

According to Bitwise data, the amount of money flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs this year amounts to approximately $20 billion (as of October 19). This is 10 times higher than the net inflow recorded in the first year the gold ETF was listed. Gold ETFs have never recorded a net inflow of $20 billion in the nine years since their introduction. In addition, it is reported that supply cannot keep up with demand as the spot ETF’s Bitcoin purchase volume (32,370) and mining volume (2,250) exceeded last week.

Chainalysis said, “Bitcoin spot ETF is a legally protected product that meets the needs of both retail and institutional investors at the same time. With the launch of an ETF that allows anyone to easily and conveniently invest in Bitcoin, the amount of funds coming into Bitcoin is increasing. “The scale can only grow,” he said, adding, “The enormous influence the United States has on the global virtual asset market cannot be denied. The convergence of traditional finance and virtual assets due to the introduction of ETFs has formed a virtual asset ecosystem in the United States.”

“It is clear that the introduction of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has led to widespread adoption of Bitcoin internationally,” said Kevin Tang, head of digital assets at BlackRock. “It is thanks to the participation of the United States that it is considered a hedge against ,” he said.

Virtual assets swaying in the US presidential election… “It will skyrocket if Trump is elected.”

Photo = Getty Images

The possibility of former US President Donald Trump being elected is also further encouraging Bitcoin’s rise. As of this day, with the U.S. presidential election still two weeks away, the odds of former President Trump winning the presidential election at the betting site PolyMarket are about 64%, far ahead of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (35.9%). This is because many opinion polls have announced that former President Trump is ahead of Vice President Harris.

On the 20th (local time), political media The Hill and election site Decision Desk HQ calculated that former President Trump had a 52% chance of being elected in this presidential election. It is 10% behind Vice President Harris (42%). Additionally, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP), a public opinion poll analysis site, as of the 15th, Trump was ahead in all 6 of the 7 battleground states except Wisconsin.

Accordingly, the virtual asset industry expects that former President Trump’s election will lead to a boom period in the virtual asset market, including Bitcoin. Trump has consistently revealed his ambition to make the United States a center for virtual assets.

In addition, Trump appointed people who are friendly to virtual assets to key positions in the Cabinet and announced that he would designate Bitcoin as a strategic stockpile asset for the United States. He also took steps to recognize Bitcoin as an asset, such as personally using Bitcoin to buy a hamburger. It is showing.

Former US President Donald Trump purchasing a hamburger using Bitcoin / Photo = Pubky Bar capture

In a report, virtual asset analysis companies Matrix Port and Prestories Research predicted that if Trump, who promised to relax virtual asset regulations and reduce taxes, is elected, Bitcoin will surpass the psychological resistance level of $70,000 and reach an all-time high. Standard Chartered (SC) predicted that Trump’s presidential election victory would lead the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.

Lee Yong-jae, senior manager of the Digital Asset TF at Mirae Asset Securities, said, “While both presidential candidates from both parties in the United States are taking a friendly stance toward virtual assets, Trump is going one step further and advocating easing financial regulations and fostering virtual assets.” “As the virtual asset and token securities industry has been selected as a future source of growth, Trump’s core pledge can maximize synergy, and the United States’ influence on the virtual asset market will grow further in the future.”

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