Birth rate in China: too slow

After decades of one-child policy, China has slowed population growth in its own country. Also, the population is actually declining. This brings problems.

The world’s population is growing, and of all places, numbers are decreasing in the world’s most populous country. For decades, China has been trying to keep population growth in check. Until 2016, each couple could only have one child. This was the so-called one-child policy. But China has crossed the line. Now the population is decreasing. And it’s getting old.

China gets old before it gets rich, says Yi Fuxian. He is Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the United States. “Two years ago, for every person age 65 and older, there were five workers,” she says. In 2035 this average will be only 2.4 workers, in 2050 only 1.6 workers. “This means that spending on social security and health insurance in China will increase and the national debt will increase.”

Extremely expensive education and housing

Yi also expects that with China’s population dwindling, the economy can no longer grow as strongly. He even sees the health system in crisis, as the number of elderly patients will increase without there being enough young people to care for the elderly.

For some years, China has been trying to counter this phenomenon and motivate couples to have more children. Last year, the state and party leadership even granted a third child after the second. But many do not want more than one child or cannot afford more than one because schooling and housing are extremely expensive.

In the future 40 million unmarried men

Another problem: The one-child policy has made selective abortions commonplace for decades. Boys were born preferentially, girls were often aborted. Because in Chinese culture and society, boys are often valued more than girls.

Today, Chinese men have a hard time finding wives. For every 100 women of marriageable age, there are 125 men, explains Professor Yi. “In rural areas it is very difficult and expensive to marry a woman.” There will be 40 million unmarried men in China in the future. This threatens social stability and leads to rape and trafficking in women. “Many men in China are forced to marry brides from neighboring countries such as Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos. This exports the lack of women to neighboring countries,” Yi explains.

No women’s policy

Men are also dominant in politics in China. The leaders of the Communist Party, the seven members of the Standing Committee, are all men. The only woman left the second most important body, the Politburo, in October. Nobody went up. That was the last quarter of a century ago.

Because women don’t make decisions in Chinese politics, China doesn’t make politics for women, says Valerie Tan of the China Research Institute in Berlin. Women are severely disadvantaged in China and therefore give birth to fewer and fewer children. “Women are placed in an extremely precarious economic and social position. And this does not bode well for the birth rate and for China’s future economic and social development”.

The data indicated that the company would shrink rapidly. A development reinforced by the zero-Covid policy, explains Tan. “The result is economic and social insecurity. And that makes it even more difficult to convince women to have more than one child or to have a child.”