October 26, 2024 14:30 English Championship (League 1), round 14
Mansfield
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–
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Birmingham
On October 26 at 14:30 (Moscow time) there will be a match of the English Championship (League 1), in which Mansfield will play against Birmingham. Read on for a free match forecast from Betting Tools. Bookmakers are much more likely to rate the Blues’ chances, offering odds of 1.75 on them to win. Bets on the home team’s victory are accepted with odds of 4.32. And bets on a draw result are accepted with odds of 3.80. The performance of the game, according to bookmakers, will be high: the odds for TB 2.5 are at 1.67. Bets on TM 2.5 are accepted with odds of 2.15.
Mansfield – Birmingham. Key facts about the match
- Mansfield met Wigan in their last match in the English Championship (League 1) on October 22 and won with a score of 2:1. In the five previous meetings of the tournament, Mansfield won four times and lost only once.
- Birmingham played against Bolton in their last match in the English Championship (League 1) on October 22. The match ended in his victory with a score of 2:0. The Blues won their second game in a row. In the five previous meetings of the tournament, Birmingham won four times, losing only once.
- The visitors have a defensive advantage (opponents’ defensive ratings are 1013 and 1247 respectively). In addition, the guests are stronger in attack (the attack rating of the hosts and guests is 1102 and 1233).
- The ratio of the home team’s attack rating to the visiting team’s defense rating is 0.88. According to statistics, the expected number of goals for an attacking team with this ratio is 1.17.
- The ratio between the visiting team’s attack rating and the home team’s defense rating is 1.22. With this ratio, the average expected number of goals in a match for an attacking team is 1.55.
- In the last five meetings with Mansfield’s participation, bets on the team’s victory (+110.0%) and bets on the total under 2.5 goals (+66.0%) were profitable.
- In the last five meetings involving Birmingham, it was profitable to bet on the Blues winning (+38.0%) and on the total under 2.5 goals (+22.0%).
Mansfield – Birmingham. Statistics forecasts
Goal forecast:
total less than 2.5 goals (TM 2.5) BET
Forecasts for the match are generated using machine learning: the predictive model was trained on a large sample of played matches and now, based on the data received, generates forecasts for upcoming matches taking into account the input parameters. One of the key factors for making a forecast is the ratio of the teams’ attack and defense ratings.
Odds estimate for the match Mansfield – Birmingham
A score greater than 1 means the odds are underestimated and the bet is mathematically profitable. If the score is less than 1, the odds are overrated and the bet is mathematically unprofitable. Predictions for the match are formed taking into account the odds estimates, but this is not the decisive factor. For this reason, sometimes a forecast can be made for an outcome whose coefficient estimate is below 1.
Profitability of bets on team matches:
Mansfield
Birmingham
Winning rates +110.0% +38.0%
Bets on a draw -100.0% -100.0%
Losing bets -36.0% -13.0%
Rates on TM 2.5 +66.0% +22.0%
Rates for TB 2.5 -59.0% -29.0%
Bookmaker points 7.4 10.1
Actual points 12 12
Note: Bookmaker points – the number of points that a team should have scored based on bookmaker odds in the last five matches (or a smaller number if the team does not have five matches with odds). Calculation using the formula: 3/kt for a win + 1/kt for a draw. Actual points – the actual number of points a team has scored in its last five matches (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw).
Note: the average team statistics for the last 5 matches of the tournament are shown against all opponents (for the “All opponents” tab) and against opponents of the same level as the current one based on bookmaker odds (for the “Opponents of the same level” tab).
Mansfield. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: more shots on goal (13.6 versus 12.0); higher accuracy of shots on goal (30.9% versus 28.3%); higher percentage of long-range shots (45.6% versus 43.3%); higher percentage of ball possession (57.0 vs. 54.4); higher passing accuracy (78.0 vs. 77.2); more corners per match (7.4 versus 6.2); fewer fouls per match (9.6 versus 13.8).
Birmingham. Advantages over the opponent in statistics: a higher percentage of shots from the penalty area (56.7% versus 54.4%); fewer missed shots (6.0 vs. 8.4); higher percentage of blocked shots (36.7% vs. 23.8%).
Favorite/Underdog. How will the game go?
Based on the current match odds, Mansfield are a C+ team and Birmingham are an A- team. In the last 50 matches of the tournament between opponents of these classes, the C+ class team won 16% of the matches, 24% of the matches ended in a draw and the A- class team won 60% of the matches.
C+ Underdog of the match. A draw can be considered a good result. The odds for winning are in the range of 3.70 – 5.50.
A- Favorite of the match. It may be significantly superior to its opponent in class, but winning is far from guaranteed. The odds for winning are in the range of 1.60 – 2.00.
Mansfield (C+)
Birmingham ( A- )
Explanation of the predicted course of the game between the teams Mansfield and Birmingham: Based on the available statistics of the history of meetings of similar teams, it was concluded that the percentage probability of winning in regular time for the Mansfield team is 16%. The team’s chances of winning are 60%. The probability of a draw is 24%.
