A neck-and-neck race was predicted, but in the end Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV emerged as by far the largest party in the Netherlands. What else stands out about the results?
1. How big is Wilders’ profit?
The PVV’s 37 seats have doubled compared to the previous elections in 2021. Never before has Geert Wilders achieved such a result with his party, never before has his formation been the largest in the country. In the polls, the PVV only rose to the level of competitors VVD, PvdA-GroenLinks and Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC at the end. A photo finish between the leaders was expected, but it did not happen.
Wilders comes from far away. The party withered away during the State elections in March of this year, but since the fall of the Rutte government over asylum policy, the PVV has started to rise steadily. Wilders’ gains may have to be sought mainly from the outgoing government parties VVD, CDA and D66, which all suffered serious damage and together lost no fewer than 34 seats.
According to the exit poll, ‘health care’ was the issue that generally affected most voters. For the PVV it was migration. Other themes such as ‘norms and values’ and ‘confidence in policy’ also scored high on the Dutch person’s list of priorities.
2. Are there any other winners?
The political landslide in the Netherlands is immense. Between the three of them, the outsider parties PVV, NSC and the BBB will get 44 more seats than in 2021. That is almost a third of the total of 150 parliamentary seats to be allocated. But even compared to the spring elections, the change is significant. Back then, out of nowhere, the BBB was the largest party in the country, but it has now dropped back to 7 seats. The NSC comes in with 20 seats.
The left-wing unity formation PvdA-GroenLinks is also making gains: 25 seats are 8 more than the two parties previously obtained separately. It may become the second largest faction in the House of Representatives, just ahead of the VVD. On the other hand, the collective left in the Netherlands is making a net loss: the decline of D66, the radical left SP and the Party for the Animals is higher than the gain of the green-red cartel. Even more striking: without an electoral threshold, the political landscape in the Netherlands remains very fragmented, but all small parties will lose seats compared to 2021 (except the BBB).
3. What coalitions are possible?
As the country’s largest party, the PVV is given the initiative to form a government. One formula is obvious: a (far) right-wing cabinet of PVV with the VVD and the NSC, together accounting for 81 seats out of 150. Caroline Van der Plas’ BBB has also shown itself willing to participate in negotiations. Such a cabinet would then amount to a comfortable 88 seats.
It won’t be easy though. Before the elections, Omtzigt said on behalf of the NSC that he did not want to work with Wilders. Dilan Yesilgöz kept the door ajar at the VVD, but did not see himself joining a cabinet with Wilders as prime minister. That’s what it looks like now. The parties involved will need time to make that change.
In terms of content, the gap also remains large. Wilders attempted, with apparent success, to profile himself in the campaign as a more moderate right-wing conservative version of himself, and on election night he also showed himself prepared to “step over his shadow”. He asked the same attitude from other parties. Omtzigt already used exactly the same words and showed himself prepared to “take responsibility”. Yesilgöz also kept a low profile and did not express anything exclusive.”
Collaboration remains a difficult task, even when it comes to compromise. Although Wilders confirmed that he will operate “within the constitution”, his promise to give the Netherlands back to the Dutch first will still raise concerns among people with migration roots. A deal with Eurosceptic Wilders is also not an obvious choice regarding climate and other international agreements.
4. Are there alternatives?
The options for links are limited. Mathematically, PvdA-GroenLinks could also form a cabinet with the NSC and VVD and D66, but that colorful coalition does not seem to be anyone’s first preference. It was striking that the leader of PvdA-GL, Frans Timmermans, and Rob Jetten at D66 immediately gave strong speeches in which they substantively opposed the radical right, as if they were already in the opposition.
Jetten blamed the VVD for the election results, which dropped the cabinet over asylum policy, also made it an election issue and opened the door to a government with Wilders. That would have strengthened voters’ belief that a vote for the PVV could be useful. Many analysts have come to the same conclusion that the VVD itself caused this political earthquake.
5. What if no majority is found?
An alternative would be a minority cabinet, with or without Wilders. Such a cabinet would then have to always seek a majority in the House of Representatives. Geert Wilders himself indicated that he has little interest in that. He also has few good memories of an earlier experiment, when he provided tolerating support to the first Rutte government, but quickly withdrew that support. With many new, inexperienced names in parliament, a minority cabinet could be a winding adventure anyway.
