According to the Chinese newspaper South China Morning Post the Democratic leader of the House of Representatives in the United States, Nancy Pelosi, left on Friday on an Asia tour, where she will visit several different countries in Asia.
– If she makes the trip to Taiwan, the tension level will increase considerably, and China will react significantly by showing strong displeasure.
This is what Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr, senior researcher at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI), tells Dagbladet.
Preparing for invasion
The vending
Speculation has been extremely strong that Pelosi will visit Taiwan, but on Sunday morning, Pelosi’s office stated that she will visit four countries from today – Taiwan is not mentioned among these.
According to one press release she will visit the countries of Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.
On Saturday, the Chinese military held live-fire drills off its own coast, across Taiwan, the state news agency Xinhua reports.
As a result, speculation has arisen as to whether there is a connection between the firing drills and Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan.
– Shoot her down
Chinese commentator Hu Xijin, who works for the Chinese state-controlled Global Times newspaper, said on Friday that Beijing could shoot down Pelosi’s plane if it was escorted by US fighter jets.
– If American fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane to Taiwan, then it is an invasion, Xijin wrote in a comment on Twitter.
– Shoot her down
– The People’s Liberation Army has every right to chase away Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and conducting tactical obstacles. If they fail, shoot them down, he wrote further.
Deleted Twitter message
The visit to Taiwan has still not been confirmed, but it has not been denied either. Pelosi’s announced destinations on Sunday have not yet been commented on by China, if the message is received as a denial.
– Pelosi must take into account that China can also take measures that they have never done before, says Gåsemyr.
He states that Pelosi’s possible visit could help harm American interests in relation to having the most balanced relationship with China.
sea view
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On Saturday, the commentator in the Global Times deleted Friday’s message, according to Reuters. He states that he deleted the message in order to regain access to his account, which was blocked.
On the messaging service Weibo, Xijin states that he has conveyed his message that if US fighter jets escort Pelosi to Taiwan, then it is a sign of aggression.
Taiwan has been self-governing for over 70 years without Beijing having any influence, but China still considers the island its territory and rejects that the authorities there have the right to establish foreign policy relations with other countries.
Planning a visit in August
Gåsemyr says the US can make the visit less official.
– It will be a big and dramatic event if she visits Taiwan, but it doesn’t necessarily have to turn everything upside down, believes the senior researcher.
– Meant what he said
Pelosi is the third most powerful person in the United States, after the president and vice president. No such high-ranking US politician has visited Taiwan since 1997.
According to the plan, she plans to visit Taiwan in August, and according to Washington Post is this the reason why China is now threatening the USA.
Special politician
There are several reasons why Pelosi will visit Taiwan now, according to the researcher at NUPI.
– There is a greater willingness in the US to confront China now than five or ten years ago, says Gåsemyr.
In addition, Pelosi is a special politician in this context, according to the researcher.
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– She is among the politicians in the US who always talk about democratic values and human rights in their relationship with China, he says.
The researcher adds that Pelosi also has values and principles that she shares with many in Taiwan.
– Willing to do more
It is not the first time that a situation arises where the Taiwan issue comes up, and China reacts.
– What is special now is that the level of conflict between China and the US is greater than in many years, says Gåsemyr.
– Just talk about time
He thinks it is difficult to give a concrete answer to what kind of signal the US gives if Pelosi travels to Taiwan.
– Biden has previously stated that the US may be willing to do more than what has been considered standard American Taiwan policy for many years, says the researcher at NUPI.
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