The Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (BIEK) documented a sharp increase in the volume of shipments in the CEP market for 2020 as part of the annual CEP study. The volume grew by around 400 million CEP consignments, and a total of more than 4 billion consignments were transported. The consignments to end consumers (B2C consignments) are seen as growth drivers. The CEP shipment volume rose by 10.9 percent in 2020. This is the first time in the last twenty years that growth has been in double digits. The total turnover in the CEP sector developed in a similar way, increasing by 10.5 percent, to 23.5 billion euros last year. The companies employed a total of 255,200 people in 2020, 10,600 more than in the previous year.
B2C shipment volume is increasing sharply in the national parcel market
In the national parcel market, the association recorded an increase of 18.6 percent in the B2C segment in 2020. This strong growth makes B2C parcel shipments the main driver of overall CEP shipment growth. In the overall market, i.e. for national and international courier, express and parcel shipments, B2C shipments even increased by 19.7 percent, according to the BIEK. The main reason for these developments can be seen in the dynamically growing online trade, which has received a further boost from the corona pandemic.
Counter-trend in the pandemic: B2B market declining
In the B2B segment, i.e. shipments for which the sender and recipient are companies, the situation is different: the shipment volume in the national B2B parcel market fell by 5.2 percent in 2020. The strong minus can be explained by the corona-related weak economic development, especially in stationary retail. In the overall B2B market (national and international courier, express and parcel shipments), however, the decline is significantly lower at -1.5%, which is due to the positive development in international shipments and in the express segment.
Outlook for 2021: Association expects further growth
The CEP study predicts a total of around 320 million additional programs for 2021. That would correspond to an increase of approx. 8 percent. An annual growth in shipments of 7 percent to 5.68 billion shipments can be expected by 2025. The medium-term forecast has thus increased: At the beginning of the corona pandemic, an annual growth in shipments of around 4 percent was predicted.
“The pandemic has had a lasting impact on the CEP market. In metropolitan areas and city centers, shipment volumes are increasing faster than expected, increasing the challenges associated with delivery. The need for innovative solutions for urban logistics is increasing “, stated Marten Bosselmann, Chairman of the BIEK on the effects of the corona pandemic on the parcel industry
By 2025, 12,000 additional employees will be required per year; before the corona pandemic, a requirement of ‘only’ 7,000 additional employees per year was expected, Bosselmann continued. The CEP companies continuously adapted to new challenges and invested heavily in future topics. For Bosselmann, this includes a qualified workforce, the optimization of working conditions, digitization processes, alternative drive technologies, and increasingly sustainable and efficient urban logistics.
Especially in the crisis, the parcel services have proven themselves as reliable and flexible partners: for recipients in the home office, for companies that depend on the reliable transport of goods, and for the healthcare sector, Bosselmann promoted.
Focus on Brexit: Analysis of the additional work and additional costs
Due to current events, Brexit was once again a focus of the study in addition to the effects of the corona. For CEP companies in Germany and Great Britain, Brexit already caused costs of up to an estimated 240 million euros last year, the authors state. The study analyzes the resulting costs and additional work and gives the optimistic outlook that the processes will continue to work in the course of the year. However, additional effort and costs would remain.
The CEP study has been published annually since 2004 and is created by KE-CONSULT Kurte & Esser GbR on behalf of the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics. It shows an up-to-date and comprehensive picture of market development, trends and the economic importance of the entire CEP sector in Germany.
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