Can Biden’s visit help unblock the formation of a government in Northern Ireland or, on the contrary, can it be counterproductive?
The way in which Biden has focused on the future of Northern Ireland is a very positive approach. But I don’t think the president’s visit has any concrete influence on the formation of the government, either positive or negative. In the end, these are complicated and very specific issues, in this case, of the internal dynamics of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), and within the distribution of institutional power in Northern Ireland. Here, the United States does not have a great influence.
Does the political paralysis tarnish the progress of the peace process on this 25th anniversary?
Yes of course. The institutional power sharing in Northern Ireland is a negative sign. The main concern would be that the political representatives rehabilitate the crisis due to the power vacuum and, in the event of not having the peaceful and democratic resources to resolve the differences, contemplated in the peace agreement, opt for other methods. It is significant that President Biden has underlined the importance of democratic tools in Northern Ireland. The majority of public opinion wants the institutions to be restored as soon as possible.
What cost can your veto in Stormont have for unionists?
Stay outside. The difficulty for hard-line unionists is that the longer they take to restore the normal functioning of the institutions, the more support the reunification of Ireland will add as an alternative. In fact, the polls reflect an increase in support for reunification. It is a challenge for unionists. The tactics they have used to date have not worked. And having democratic institutions also has a practical effect on the functioning of public services. They undermine confidence in the democratic process and Northern Ireland’s place within the UK.
How would you describe Biden’s relationship with Ireland?
Biden’s visit is important, especially because of the way in which he has emphasized Irish identity, also from the United States. It is truly significant that she expresses a commitment to continue this close relationship between the United States and Northern Ireland, because that is unusual with a territory as small as this. It is all wrapped up in a commitment to peace and prosperity, and if you are committed to peace in Northern Ireland, it implies that you have a good relationship with the British Government.
Do you think that Brexit and the political blockade bring the reunification of Ireland closer?
According to the latest polls, the majority, around 63% of the population, believe that Brexit has made a united Ireland more likely. The problem now has to do with expectations. In the event of a referendum, around half would choose to remain in the UK, but we are seeing growing support for reunification, especially in response to institutional dysfunction in Northern Ireland. This explains the increase in tensions in recent months.
