If the 2024 US election turns out to be a 2020 rematch between now-President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, something most Americans wouldn’t want but seems increasingly likely, Biden has the best chance of winning.
True, Biden is a lousy speaker, makes frequent mistakes, and would have been 82 in his first year in office. But it’s also true that Biden has been doing pretty well of late and he may be in an even better position next year.
Whether it’s the Wall Street stock market, technological innovation, the unemployment rate, the post-pandemic recovery, the defense of civil rights, the fight against climate change or foreign policy, the United States is much better off than it was when Trump left office.
When Trump left the White House, he had threatened to withdraw from the NATO military alliance, was embracing Russia’s dictator, and US-European ties were at their worst. Biden has not only rebuilt the Atlantic alliance, but has forged a much broader pro-Western front since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In addition to restoring good relations with Europe, Biden has managed to add Japan, Switzerland, Finland, Sweden, and several other previously neutral or uncommitted countries to the anti-Russian front.
Even Turkey seems to be turning to the West, following its application to join the European Union and its approval of Sweden’s entry into NATO.
If one looks at the world in terms of alliances, rather than countries, the United States today leads the strongest alliance it has led in many decades.
Meanwhile, China and Russia are suffering from mounting long-term economic problems. China has seen its economy fall from annual rates of 10% in recent decades to 5.2% this year, and its population is aging rapidly.
Russia’s economy is being hit all over the place after the disastrous Russian invasion of the Ukraine. The once-powerful Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is weakened by his defeats on the battlefield and a recent rebellion by his own mercenaries.
It is true that the United States could enter a post-pandemic recession, but most economists agree that it will be milder than feared. Inflation is coming down and interest rate hikes are forecast to fall early next year, kickstarting the economy ahead of the November 2024 election.
The world’s most significant technological revolution – the emergence of ChatGPT and other AI-powered chatbots – is taking place in the United States.
Unemployment remains at 3.6%, one of its lowest rates in decades. The Dow Jones US stock index is up 16% this year, to over 35,200 as I write these lines. It was at 30,900 when Trump left office in 2021.
And, as for the electoral map, Biden’s mammoth infrastructure and climate change bills are starting to produce huge private investments in clean energy and computer chips in swing states like Arizona and Georgia.
Arizona alone will get $69 billion in new investment, the White House says. “Biden has presided over a manufacturing explosion, including in every red state,” wrote “The Washington Post” columnist Greg Sargent.
No doubt Biden’s age will be an issue in 2024. Trump will try to portray him as a senile old man, but the problem is that Trump would also be 78 if elected. And Democrats would have plenty of videos to try to paint Trump as insane, like when he suggested injecting those infected with COVID-19 with a disinfectant.
Many voters will also think twice before voting for Trump, because he would be a part-time president: he would have to spend a good deal of his time appearing in various courts for the multiple criminal charges against him.
According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Biden is leading Trump 49% to 45%. A lot can still happen, but barring a health issue for Biden, I wouldn’t be surprised if that gap widens further in favor of the current president.
-Edited-
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*El Comercio opens its pages to the exchange of ideas and reflections. In this plural framework, the newspaper does not necessarily agree with the opinions of the writers who sign it, although it always respects them.
2023-07-23 13:35:34
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