▲ The US media said that China has many advantages in economic strength, making it difficult for Biden to be tough on China.
As the Biden team is about to enter the White House, the American political circles are rumored to believe that the new government will take a tougher stance against China. Analysis published in the US media pointed out that China holds some powerful economic cards and is in a powerful negotiating position. Despite the Trump administration’s pressure on China, China’s economy is still stronger than Western countries in certain aspects, and international capital continues to flow in. Biden wants to take a tougher stand against China, “The reality is much more complicated just like the situation usually faced by gossip」。
The “Wall Street Journal” article pointed out that the International Monetary Fund expects China’s economy to expand by 1.9% in 2020, which means that China is expected to become the only major economy in the world to achieve growth this year when the new crown epidemic is raging. In contrast, the US economy is expected to shrink by 4.3%, while the Eurozone economy is expected to shrink by 8.3%. Biden has talked about building a stronger front with allies to reduce China’s economic influence and encouraging US companies to transfer key supply chains from China to China. However, he has not yet announced how to deal with Trump’s additional tariffs on goods imported from China, nor has he explained how the phased trade agreement negotiated between the Trump administration and Beijing will go in the future.
Biden worries about excessive sanctions against China
International capital continues to flow in, it is difficult for the United States to isolate China
When these decisions need to be made, Biden faces a situation where, in many respects, China has unexpectedly withstood the test of the trade war with the Trump administration. In other respects, China’s economic influence has actually increased. China has established a new regional trading bloc (the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) with 14 other countries, and the United States has been excluded. At the same time, Europe and China finalized an investment agreement. Overall, financial capital is still flowing into China.
Du Dawei, a former official of the U.S. Treasury Department, pointed out that compared with the United States, American allies are generally less interested in economic decoupling from China. He said: “If our allies remain in contact with China, then our decoupling will isolate us and strengthen China’s relative position.” He also believes that even if the United States can “drive out” China from the world economy and international institutions “China may also create alternative institutions, and many developing countries will find that cooperating with China is in their own interests.”
Sino-US relations are cooling down
The relationship between the two countries is about to be reassessed, and China holds the economic card
Economic decoupling may actually exacerbate the geopolitical and military tensions that have threatened Sino-US relations. One of the forces that can prevent this kind of confrontation from getting out of control is economic interdependence. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had basically no intertwined financial relations, and almost no economic dependence on the Soviet Union. But now, China and the United States have deep-seated economic relations, at least so far, they have almost forced the two countries to find ways to coexist. The two parties in the United States have a broad consensus on the issue of taking a tougher stand against China. But exactly what this ever-changing relationship will look like is yet to be determined. At the same time, a reality is that as we enter this period of relationship reassessment, China has some powerful economic cards in its hands.
China and the U.S. Sahara compete for this resource as important as rare earths (Photos)
Editor in charge: Chen Jianxi
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