The Biden administration is just beginning to take its first steps and the scenario it faces maintains some vestiges of those that it had to face as Obama’s vice president, although fraught with greater uncertainty and volatility, the product of a more assertive behavior of other great powers, the empowerment of new actors and the growing role of unconventional settings.
His brand new Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, recently confirmed in office by the Congressional Armed Services Committee, is the first African American to lead the Pentagon. A military man who has led an impeccable career and is responsible for the implementation of the US troop withdrawal in Iraq, he retired from active service in 2016. The reasons for his choice were various, although they can be synthesized in order of priorities: Domestic, International and Structural. Their confirmation process made clear the order on which those will be structured.
Austin will be in charge of the long process of retrenchment and reorganization of priorities that began the Obama administration and that continued during the Trump era, although with certain peculiarities. Withdrawal can be the result of a reordering of priorities or by abandonment. Obama was guided by the first, while Trump combined both. Lloyd Austin will have to continue working on the reordering of priorities, with the costs and consequences that this implies.
Domestic reasons prevailed in his appointment and this area will be at the top of his priorities. In this sphere there are two central problems.
The first is the pandemic, considered not only a matter of public health, but also of national security. To face it, the new secretary has already promised to have all the logistical power to be able to carry the vaccination campaign effectively throughout the country.
The second is the number of veterans in the junior ranks of the Armed Forces who support Trump and the conspiracy theories developed by QAnon. Although they do not represent a majority, they are a noisy and military-trained minority seeking to be captured by far-right groups, as recent FBI reports show, which expect domestic terrorism to intensify. The internal challenge is enormous.
On the international stage, it will have to face a growing conflict with the great powers. At least in this case, it will have some bipartisan support in the background. As Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted: “Trump was right” about China, although he “hates” its methods.
It is the biggest competitor that the country has faced since the end of the Cold War, forcing it to adjust its strategy in the Pacific. For its part, Beijing has decided not to give Biden a break and has tested the toughness of the 78-year-old president’s will by simulating an attack on a US aircraft carrier three days after his inauguration.
Russia showed that it will continue to consolidate its position in Europe and that it will not be intimidated by external pressure or criticism for the repression of Navalny supporters. Both are also concerned about their growing influence in all regions of the world, where there are potential allies of those who challenge the ailing liberal order. South America enters the radar and not only because of the positive agenda that Biden declares.
Finally, the new Secretary will have to face a series of structural issues with a strong impact in the long term. On the one hand, the new nuclear race, marked by the recent tests of new North Korean weapons and by the damaged fantasies of the return to the JCPOA after the declarations of the Iranian regime refusing to sit down at the negotiating table again until a series of difficult challenges is met. terms.
On the other hand, the race for outer space, characterized by increasing competitiveness and militarization, which also reaches the US Finally, while Donald Trump for the most part denied the dangers coming from cyberspace, the new management already It has stood out as a scene of strong conflict to which it will pay special attention. The three highlighted areas are today factors of strategic instability.
The Biden administration begins its mandate with multiple threats, which it will have to face with a damaged soft power and a hard power that it finds is increasingly disputed. As if this were not enough, it will also face the growing sharp power (Sharp) of the illiberal powers and even of certain internal groups. Disinformation and subversive practices will be the order of the day, because they allow advantages. The consolidation of the dispute between the Atlantic and Pacific axis will signify the defense policy of the new administration.
Juan Battaleme is Professor of International Relations (UBA / UCEMA). Lautaro Rubbi is Professor of International Relations (UADE)
