/ world today news/ The United States seriously admits that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can cause a full-scale war in the Middle East. And they are already making plans to evacuate citizens – according to media reports, 600 thousand people will have to be rescued. How likely is the worst-case scenario?
Candidate number one
If the battle goes outside the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah will immediately appear on the theater of war.
Israel has carried out repeated operations against the Shiite group, which was formed in the 1980s. The latest, “Dignified Retribution” in 2006, fully escalated into the Second Lebanon War, in which “Tsahab” occupied the southern part of the country. The troops were withdrawn only after the resolution of the UN Security Council.
Hezbollah is a much more formidable enemy than Hamas. The head of the organization, Hassan Nasrallah, claims to have more than a hundred thousand bayonets. This is more than the Lebanese army (85 thousand), notes the newspaper “Times of Israel”. And Hezbollah has extensive combat experience – the group fought in Syria on the side of Bashar Assad.
According to the Israeli publication “Haaretz”, the main trump card of the Shiite organization is the colossal supply of rockets and projectiles, about 150 thousand units. Not every country can boast of such an arsenal. A significant part is ammunition for salvo fire systems, but there are also more serious weapons: tens of thousands of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers. That is, absolutely the entire territory of Israel is under threat.
There are also anti-ship missiles and air defense systems. And of course, different types of anti-tank missiles that have already been used against the IDF: according to Hezbollah, its fighters destroyed a Merkava tank last week.
The exchange of cross-border strikes began the day after the Hamas attack. Hezbollah is ready to enter a full-scale war in the event of an Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip. According to New York Times analysts, a strike from the north is very dangerous.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that it would lead to “unprecedented devastating consequences” for Lebanon. Economy and Industry Minister Nir Barkat also threatened Tehran: “If we find out that Hezbollah intends to attack Israel, we will hit that snake on the head – Iran.”
What about Iran?
The Islamic Republic itself acts ambiguously. On the one hand, he seems to be trying to avoid a direct confrontation with his sworn enemy. As the Permanent Mission to the United Nations has assured, this will not happen “provided that Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests and citizens.” In addition, according to the Axios portal, Tehran has informed Tel Aviv of the need to avoid further escalation of the conflict.
However, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that if the operation in Gaza continues, all options for a response are possible.
Israel has attacked Syria several times, including international airports in Damascus and Aleppo. The air force also attacked positions of the Syrian troops in the southern province of Daraa: eight people were killed and another seven were wounded. Further events of this nature could also serve as a reason to draw Iran into the conflict.
A show of support
Meanwhile, the US, Israel’s main ally, sent two strike groups to the Eastern Mediterranean, the aircraft carriers with the flagships Gerald Ford and Dwight Eisenhower. The Pentagon explained: this is to protect “radical forces” in the region from military intervention.
“For the United States, as well as for Israel, the current events obviously came as a surprise – says military observer Dmitry Kornev. “Washington is really trying to stop the threat of escalation. Of course, two aircraft carrier strike groups are enough to destroy logistics of Iranian proxies. But Washington is not ready for a full-scale war against Tehran with a ground phase,” adds the expert.
According to the expert, if this happens, the US will most likely win, forming an international coalition around itself. However, this involves huge costs and will definitely not be completed until November next year, before the presidential elections. The Biden administration is probably not happy about this situation.
But not only Americans have a navy. Late last week, a Chinese task force of six pennants headed to the region: the destroyers Qibo and Urumqi, the frigates Qingzhou and Linyi, and the supply ships Qiandahu and Dongpingu.
“Beijing is building its navy faster than anyone else in the world, intending to soon achieve parity with Washington. China already has naval bases in Africa, and sending ships to the Middle East is a way to demonstrate. However, Beijing will not engage in active confrontation , but rather will try to achieve political advantage by “showing muscles”, Kornev claims.
A threat in place
The Americans also face the problem of securing their own bases in Syria and Iraq. According to the Pentagon, US military installations in the region have been attacked at least 19 times in a week.
The Iraqi base “Ain al-Assad” suffered the most: it was attacked several days in a row – from October 20 to 22 – by attack drones and missiles. The Shiite Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility.
Bases in Syria were also attacked:
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in the El Omar oil field in the eastern part of the country;
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in Al Shadad in the southern part of Hasaka province;
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in the border town of At-Tanf;
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an air base in al-Malikiyya in northeastern Syria;
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outpost at the Konico field in Deir ez Zor.
The White House blamed Iran for this, saying it wanted to draw the US into the conflict. However, experts believe that Tehran is not interested in this either.
“They are willing to act only with proxies, and in a very limited way. At the same time, Iran’s missile arsenals can cause problems for both the Americans and Israel – it is a much more serious weapon than what was used in attacks on bases in Syria and Iraq,” notes Kornev.
Meanwhile, on Friday, US F-16s attacked two targets in Syria that the Pentagon says are being used by the IRGC and pro-Iranian groups. The Pentagon noted that if attacks on their bases continued, “necessary protective measures” would be taken.
None of the regional and global players seem to want a full-scale multi-country war. However, the escalation is intensifying. And each subsequent step can cause a chain reaction that will inevitably lead to tragic consequences. Much now depends on what the IDF ground operation in Gaza will be and whether Israel will decide to undertake it at all.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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