And the American government has been able to mobilize, beyond the European Union and NATO, a vast coalition to impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia.
But with the new battle brewing in eastern Ukraine, American strategists fear that this common effort will gradually crumble.
If the war is concentrated in the Donbass region, far from kyiv and NATO’s borders, the sense of urgency and unity of the West may diminish in the long run, recognizes a diplomat. “It’s a challenge“, he told AFP.
Another senior official fears that certain European countries, very affected by the inflation caused by the sanctions, could be tempted in the long term to release the pressure.
“Escalation in Horror”
For the time being, this should not be the case.
“The battle that is preparing promises to be fierce“, “between large armies, with tanks“, emphasizes the former American ambassador in kyiv William Taylor. “We talk about battles like in the Second World War“, he told AFP.
“The Russians have demonstrated their willingness to kill civilians in large numbers (…) so I think the sense of urgency, and the care for Ukraine” va “even intensify“, estimates the one who is today vice-president of the think tank United States Institute of Peace.
Marie Jourdain, a French researcher at the Atlantic Council, another Washington think tank, confirms that “the intensity of the fighting but also the risk of escalation in horror in the coming weeks“should continue to unite the anti-Kremlin front.
But if the war drags on and turns into “frozen conflict“, “a certain trivialization of horror images or stories may limit emotional reactions“.
According to her, “the major issue” for Westerners will then be “maintain unity and pressure vis-à-vis Russia in a context of growing disinterest” in public opinion, who could also get tired of “economic impact“.
But for now, the United States and several European countries would rather increase the pressure to try to bend Vladimir Putin.
While they have already hit hard, Westerners do not have many options.
“Congressional pressure”
The Americans are placing a lot of hope in a seemingly unspectacular measure, which they believe will eventually bear fruit: stopping the export to Moscow of technological components essential for its military industry. In the long run, the Russian army will find it difficult to renew its arsenal and its missiles, it is predicted in Washington.
But it is above all a European embargo on Russian oil or even gas, like the one already decreed on the American side, which could change the situation, by depriving the Russian economy of a substantial windfall.
For now, the countries most dependent on Russian energy, such as Germany, are resisting. Behind the scenes, American officials say they are convinced that this measure, which was unimaginable just a few weeks ago, will happen faster than we think.
Last pitfall for the American president: to continue to supply increasingly heavy weapons to Ukraine, while avoiding the risk of direct confrontation with Russia.
And this while congressmen, from both right and left, are pushing him to go further — one of his close allies, Democratic Senator Chris Coons, even felt that Washington should clearly consider the possibility of sending of American troops in Ukraine, a red line for Joe Biden. “If we say we never will, we will incite Putin to another escalation in brutality“, warned the chosen one.
“Congressional pressure is productive, as the Biden administration is doing things it was reluctant to do before.“, estime William Taylor.
In fact, the Pentagon is now sending heavy artillery and helicopters to kyiv, overcoming its initial caution. For an American diplomat, the military setbacks of the Russian army have somewhat reassured the United States, which fears less than before seeing Vladimir Putin seek a direct conflict with the first world power.
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