In the midst of the Ukraine crisis, U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have taken a cautious approach, prioritizing incrementalism and escalation management over strategic outcomes. This dynamic duo, despite their 16-year age difference, share a common background shaped by the Cold War era and a deep commitment to the U.S.-led international order and NATO protections for Europe. Both leaders are known for their aversion to armed intervention and their risk-averse nature, which has influenced their handling of the geopolitical situation.
Biden, who has always been ideologically opposed to intervention and war, is determined to avoid a confrontation with Russia, as demonstrated by his chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Unlike previous U.S. administrations that embraced strategic ambiguity, Biden has been transparent in telegraphing his moves throughout the conflict. This cautious approach aligns with Scholz’s temperament and his historic sympathy toward Russia, rooted in his far-left activism and affiliation with the German Social Democratic Party.
While Scholz has come a long way in distancing himself from his pro-Russia legacy, there are doubts about the extent to which it still influences his decision-making. The role of advisers cannot be overlooked in shaping the leaders’ approach. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, described as highly intelligent but lacking deep national security experience, has played a significant role in guiding Biden’s strategy. On the German side, Scholz’s advisers, Schmidt and Plötner, have influenced his cautious stance. Schmidt, who is inseparable from Scholz, is known for his fear of Russia and his limited expertise in foreign policy. Plötner, a close confidante of Scholz, holds a Russia-friendly stance and questions the narrative that an attack on Ukraine is an attack on all.
However, this cautious approach has its drawbacks. While it may have prevented nuclear war, it has left the West trapped between two suboptimal outcomes: a larger war with Russia or the collapse of Ukraine, which would be a shock and a demonstration of Western weakness. The influence of other leaders in shaping Western policy should not be underestimated. The United Kingdom, under both ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and current PM Rishi Sunak, has been a staunch ally in breaking Western reticence on delivering certain weapons. Acting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has also played a significant role in breaking taboos by preparing to deliver 24 F-16s to Ukraine. Nordic, Baltic, Central, and Eastern European states, particularly Poland, have received praise from Ukrainian officials for their unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s victory.
As the Ukraine crisis continues to unfold, the cautious approach of Biden and Scholz reflects their shared aversion to armed intervention and their commitment to avoiding a confrontation with Russia. While their incrementalism and escalation management strategy may have its limitations, the influence of other leaders and their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense provide hope for a resolution to the crisis. Only time will tell how this dynamic duo’s approach will shape the future of Ukraine and its relations with Russia and the West.