Biden Administration Urged Ukraine to Exercise Restraint During Wagner Group Rebellion, According to American Officials

Biden Administration Urges Ukraine to Exercise Caution Amid Wagner Group Rebellion

The Biden administration has asked Ukrainian officials not to conduct covert attacks inside Russia as the Wagner group rebellion unfolds, according to American officials. They advised Ukraine not to do anything that would influence the outcome of events or take advantage of the chaos. The outreach came soon after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, began his rebellion.

While U.S. officials were unsure of Prigozhin’s exact plans, they knew that he intended to take military action to force the Russian Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff from power. American officials did not want to give President Vladimir Putin an excuse to claim that the rebellion was orchestrated by the United States or Ukraine. They also believed that any high-profile operation by Ukrainian forces inside Russia would not have a significant impact on Prigozhin’s goals but would allow Putin to level accusations against the West.

U.S. officials specifically told Ukrainian officials not to undertake cross-border attacks or covert sabotage missions, or engage in any gamesmanship that could give them an advantage in the war. Ukrainian intelligence units reportedly acquiesced to these instructions.

The caution from the United States appears to have worked, as Russian officials have recently signaled that they do not believe the West was behind the rebellion and have urged their embassies not to comment on it publicly. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow had received information suggesting that the United States told Ukraine not to take advantage of the rebellion.

The United States believes that most of the high-profile assassinations, acts of sabotage, and drone attacks inside Russia are the work of Ukrainian operatives or sympathizers acting under the direction of parts of the Ukrainian government or intelligence services. However, the United States is uncertain about the specific authorization of these operations within Ukraine.

Washington and Kyiv have had disagreements over Ukraine’s covert action program and the effectiveness of operations inside Russia. American officials have periodically warned Ukraine about their cross-border and covert actions inside Russia and have repeatedly told them not to use American equipment in these operations.

Some Ukrainian officials believe that covert attacks are important to demonstrate that Putin is not untouchable and that his control of the state is not as strong as he claims.

The caution from the United States was largely due to uncertainty about how events would unfold. The intelligence developed by U.S. spy agencies in the days before the rebellion did not include Prigozhin’s plans to take the city of Rostov and march on Moscow. Some U.S. officials believe that Prigozhin was improvising much of his plan as he marched toward Moscow, which could explain the unclear intelligence regarding the endgame of his rebellion.

American officials feared a bloodier outcome from clashes between Wagner forces moving north toward Moscow and Russian security personnel along the way. However, for reasons that are still unclear, Russian ground units, including the Russian National Guard, did not fire on Prigozhin’s advancing column. The Russian air force, on the other hand, attacked the rebels but suffered significant losses.

American officials believed that Prigozhin was counting on support from at least some Russian commanders or security services. As that support failed to materialize publicly and the Kremlin mobilized thousands of security personnel to defend Moscow, Prigozhin apparently began to have second thoughts about continuing his advance.

At that point, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko intervened with a plan to defuse the crisis, providing Prigozhin with a face-saving off-ramp.

The cautionary approach from the United States aimed to prevent further escalation and avoid giving Putin an opportunity to blame the West for the rebellion. As the situation continues to unfold, the United States will closely monitor developments and maintain its stance of urging caution and non-interference.

How has the cautious approach of the United States affected Russian officials’ perception of Western involvement in the rebellion

To exercise caution. The Biden administration’s recent outreach to Ukrainian officials reaffirmed this message, urging them not to undertake any activities that could influence the outcome of the rebellion or take advantage of the ensuing chaos.

This caution stems from the concern that any covert attacks conducted by Ukraine could give President Putin and the Russian government an opportunity to accuse the United States and Ukraine of orchestrating the rebellion. The Biden administration wants to avoid providing Putin with ammunition to level accusations against the West.

In their communication with Ukrainian officials, U.S. officials specifically emphasized the need to refrain from cross-border attacks, covert sabotage missions, and any gamesmanship that could give Ukraine an advantage in the conflict. Ukrainian intelligence units reportedly heeded this advice and have refrained from engaging in such activities.

The cautious approach from the United States seems to have had a positive impact, as recent statements from Russian officials indicate that they do not believe Western involvement in the rebellion. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov acknowledged that Moscow had received information suggesting that the United States had advised Ukraine not to exploit the rebellion.

While the United States believes that many high-profile assassinations, acts of sabotage, and drone attacks inside Russia are carried out by Ukrainian operatives or sympathizers under the direction of Ukrainian government or intelligence services, it remains uncertain about the specific authorization of such operations within Ukraine.

Disagreements between Washington and Kyiv have arisen in the past over Ukraine’s covert action program and the effectiveness of operations conducted inside Russia. American officials have consistently cautioned Ukraine about their cross-border and covert actions, emphasizing the need to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could escalate tensions further.