The American newspaper “Washington Post” indicated that officials in the Biden administration are concerned about Israel launching a broad military campaign against the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, with the aim of stabilizing its internal situation and saving its political career.
American officials are concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will see expanded fighting in Lebanon as key to his political survival, amid internal criticism of his government’s failure to prevent the October 7 Hamas attack, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and took about 240 hostages. It will be transferred to Gaza.
American warning
In private conversations, the US administration warned Israel against any major escalation in Lebanon, in light of what a new report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) indicated that it would be difficult for the Israeli army to succeed in this, because its military assets and resources would be widely spread. Very small given the conflict in Gaza, according to two people familiar with the matter.
More than a dozen administration officials and diplomats spoke to The Washington Post to discuss the sensitive military situation between Israel and Lebanon.
American officials who spoke to the Washington Post believe that Hezbollah wants to avoid a major escalation, and that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah seeks to stay away from a broader war, pointing to his speech he gave on Friday, in which he pledged to respond to the Israeli aggression, while He hinted that he might be open to negotiations on demarcating the border with Israel.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Israel on Monday, where he will discuss specific steps to “avoid escalation,” his spokesman Matt Miller said before boarding a plane to the Middle East.
The Washington Post quoted Miller as saying: “It is in no one’s interest – not Israel, not the region, not the world – for this conflict to spread beyond Gaza.”
Preventive attack on Hezbollah
Since the Hamas attack in October, Israeli officials have discussed launching a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah, US officials said. This prospect has faced persistent US opposition because of the possibility of drawing Iran, which supports both groups, and other proxy forces into the conflict — a possibility that could force the United States to respond militarily on behalf of Israel.
Officials fear that a large-scale conflict between Israel and Lebanon could surpass the bloodshed seen in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war due to Hezbollah’s much larger arsenal of long-range and precision weapons.
“The number of casualties in Lebanon could range between 300,000 and 500,000, which would necessitate a large-scale evacuation of the entire north of Israel,” said Bilal Saab, an expert on Lebanese affairs at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington.
He added, “Hezbollah may strike Israel deeper than before, striking sensitive targets such as petrochemical plants and nuclear reactors, and Iran may activate militias throughout the region… I do not think the matter will be limited to these two adversaries.”
Threat of wider conflict
The threat of a broader conflict continued to grow on Saturday as Hezbollah fired about 40 rockets into Israel in retaliation for the suspected assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri and six others in an airstrike on the outskirts of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, days earlier.
In recent weeks, regular shootings between Israel and Hezbollah along the border have become more aggressive, drawing particular criticism from Washington, US officials said.
According to US intelligence reviewed by The Washington Post, the Israeli military has struck US-funded and trained Lebanese Armed Forces positions more than 34 times since October 7, officials familiar with the matter said.
The United States considers the Lebanese Army the main defender of Lebanon’s sovereignty and a major counterweight to the influence of Iran-backed Hezbollah.
In December, four shells fired by Israeli tanks killed a Lebanese army soldier and wounded three others. On 8 December, Israeli artillery fire containing white phosphorus hit Lebanese Army installations, wounding a Lebanese Armed Forces soldier who inhaled the harmful fumes. On November 4, Israeli fire on a Lebanese army position in Sarda created “a large hole in the structure of the Lebanese army,” according to US intelligence.
Israeli leaders stressed the need to remove Hezbollah from the Lebanese border, in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution, stressing that if this is not achieved through diplomatic means, military intervention will be possible.
Reports revealed that the United States sent prominent envoys, including Special Envoy and Senior White House Advisor Amos Hochstein and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, to Israel with the aim of preventing the outbreak of an all-out war between the two parties.
2024-01-07 12:25:16
#Washington #fears #Netanyahu #starting #war #Lebanon #save #political #career #Sky #News #Arabia #Sky #News #Arabia
