Openness to dialogue does not always lead to an agreement. Joe Biden and Xi Jinping spoke for more than three hours last night but remained at loggerheads on the delicate subject of Taiwan. This conversation which was held by videoconference was expected, as the two countries argue over many hot topics.
It was “respectful and frank” and “much longer than expected”, according to a senior US official. The two leaders recalled the need to establish “safeguards” to prevent their many differences from degenerating into conflict. But they also stuck to their positions.
Taiwan’s independence, a risk of casus belli
As Beijing Air Force increases incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, the United States “strongly opposes” any unilateral attempt “to change the status quo or undermine the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, “said Joe Biden, according to a text released by the White House after the interview. This phrase on the “status quo” can just as well be addressed to Taiwan and its current leaders favorable to a formal independence of the island, whose official name remains “Republic of China”.
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Beijing sees Taiwan as a rebellious province to return to its fold, and has warned that a declaration of independence would be a casus belli for it. “The Taiwanese authorities have tried several times to rely on the United States for independence and some in the United States are trying to use Taiwan to control China,” Xi Jinping said. “It is a very dangerous trend which amounts to playing with fire,” he said, according to statements reported by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. “If the separatists in Taiwan provoke us, force our hand or even cross the red line, we will have to take decisive action,” the Chinese president warned.
Recently, China has stepped up military activity near the island, while Washington reiterated its commitment to help Taipei build and strengthen its defense. But if tensions are likely to increase further, in the medium term, “however, it is unlikely that China will seek to start a war, because a kind of balance of power is taking place – with the growing engagement of Japan in the zone. Without forgetting the danger of nuclearization of any Sino-American armed confrontation “, explained at the beginning of September to L’Express Jean-Pierre Cabestan, research director at the CNRS, in his book China tomorrow: war or peace? (Gallimard). What could potentially dissuade Beijing from attacking Taiwan.
Human rights concerns
During the interview, Joe Biden also expressed his “concerns about (China’s) practices in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, and human rights in general.” China is indeed accused of having set up an “institutionalized system of repression”, in the words of Jean-Yves Le Drian, against Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang province. Beijing has also firmly taken control in Hong Kong, a province that is supposed to be autonomous from the Chinese regime. Finally, China does not recognize the self-proclaimed Tibetan government in exile and accuses the Dalai Lama of seeking to separate Tibet from China. Since anti-China riots in 2008, Beijing has invested heavily in Tibet in the hope of combating the influence of the Dalai Lama.
Joe Biden also criticized the trade and economic practices considered “unfair” of China. These firm statements contrast with the kindness displayed at the start of the meeting. The two men greeted each other with their hands, by interposed screens, according to the images shot on either side.
Tight relationships
Joe Biden had estimated in his opening statements that “the competition between the two countries should not turn into a conflict, whether intentional or not.” “China and the United States must improve their communication and cooperation,” Xi Jinping said for his part, saying he was happy to see “his old friend” for the first time through screens, while their two previous exchanges had been done over the phone.
If after the coming to power of Joe Biden, the tone has changed compared to the outbursts of the Trump era, the relationship between Washington and Beijing remains extremely tense. This virtual meeting took place at a time when Xi Jinping continues to strengthen his grip on the regime. The Chinese Communist Party passed a text last week calling on “the entire Party, army and people to unite more closely around the Central Committee of which Xi Jinping forms the heart.”
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The US president, faced with an extremely divided political landscape, and a pandemic that he is struggling to eradicate, mentioned China on Monday by promulgating a gigantic infrastructure plan, supposed to allow America to “win the competition” of the 21st century. At the end of his speech, the US President repeated one of his favorite phrases: “It’s never, never a good idea to bet against the American people.”
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