Between Iran’s will and Israel’s desire: Lebanon is Trump’s test

Lebanon was interested in the content of a written letter signed by US President Donald Trump in the state of Michigan, specifically in a restaurant owned by a Lebanese named Hassan Abbas The content of the letter is Trump’s efforts to stop the last war in the Middle East and spread peace. The Speaker of the House Nabih Berri relied on this message to indicate that Trump was able to work according to a new path to stop the war. This is what the Lebanese promise. On the other hand, the Israelis, and Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, were among Trump’s biggest supporters and most counted on his return to the White House to fulfill his dream. about consecrating and realizing a “Jewish state” and defeating the Palestinian cause once and for all. all.
Trump was elected at the height of Iran-Israel tensions and exchange of blows between them. Tehran is preparing to launch a new strike against Tel Aviv, but abandoning the option is at the price of ending the war on Gaza and Lebanon. This opens a new path for Iran-American negotiations, especially since Iran will be ready to conclude an agreement with the Trump administration, according to what continuous sources from Tehran show.

Changing Iran’s Behavior
The project that Trump wants to achieve is to end the wars in the region, so he may be in a hurry to conclude agreements or understandings, but Israel is the backbone, the interest , its security and objectives. The United States cannot enter into any agreement with Iran that is against Israel’s interests, especially as a result of the extended war made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There is no position in the United States about overthrowing the Iranian regime, attacking Iran, or entering into a state of hostility with it, what is expected is Iran’s behavior in the region to change In his previous term, Trump pulled out of the nuclear agreement, tightened the economic conditions on Iran through sanctions policy, and assassinated Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani.

During his first term, Trump launched the deal formula of the century, which was based on Arab-Israeli normalization, in exchange for finding a special formula for Palestine and the Palestinian people. Today, the issue is different from the previous stage, especially after the extended war that Netanyahu is waging in the region, in which he claims that he is trying to change the face of the Middle East, which could put Trump in front of the equation of the “slap of the century” that is expected to be directed to the region with the heavy hand of Netanyahu. Especially considering the path he is taking in the work of destruction, displacement and killing in the Gaza Strip while implementing the plan of the generals in the northern end of the Street, and clearing the way for another attack on the West Bank, surrounding it and suffocating its people until they also leave the place. The success of Netanyahu’s project affects Arab national security, especially Egypt and Jordan, and it stops only at the limits of weakening Iran’s influence.

Trump and Israel’s influence
Trump said it publicly in response to his question about the war between Hezbollah and Israel, namely that this issue must be resolved.
Returning to the topic of the message that interested Lebanon, a clarification was issued by the spokesperson of the Trump campaign that the cessation of the wars would be compatible with the interest of Israel. A Trump spokesman said: “The president wants the wars to end as soon as possible, but he wants that with a decisive victory for Israel, and the Biden administration has not been steadfast in its support for Israel . ” This suggests more violence and escalation that Netanyahu will use between now and the time Trump enters the White House. The bottom line of this statement is that Trump’s project is to consolidate and strengthen Israel’s influence in the region by recreating a regional system that is equal or connected to Tel Aviv. This comes as a result of the war through which Netanyahu is trying to change each equation, through hard strikes against those who reject this project, especially Hezbollah and Hamas.

This does not mean that Trump wants the wars to continue, but he aims to establish peace, but according to his vision and according to the strategic interest of Israel. There is also no doubt that Tehran would be willing to make a deal, which is what Trump wants. In this context, Tehran’s demands do not seem to be big or inevitable after all the developments that have taken place, especially since Iran somehow agreed to the -a “two-state solution” agreement, that is, he gave it up. on the idea of ​​removing Israel from existence, and Iran’s Leader Ali Khamenei spent positions on the possibility of understanding with the United States, and Iran’s acting Foreign Minister, before Iran’s elections, Ali Bagheri Kani, said to clear that Iran’s problem with America in the region is a problem of influence later, Foreign Minister Abbas passed Araqchi reported on one state.

Iran has collapsed
What Iran wants is recognition of its role in the region, and recognition of the roles of its allies in the various countries in which they are located, as well as the lifting of sanctions. On the other hand, what Washington wants is to change the fundamental nature of Iran’s positions, in a way that guarantees the security and stability of Israel, and does not make Iran fall so much in the region or the country. powerful in the country. area Iran is still committed to the military and negotiation path to stop this war and prevent the conflict from spreading to its territories, because it does not want a regional war between he and Israel.

Between 2015 and today, many facts and equations have changed in the Middle East region. During the time of the nuclear agreement, Iran had little influence in Syria, and was not present with the greatest influence in Yemen. After Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement, and engaged in a policy of pressure on Iran, the region saw a state of constant conflict, with which Iran tried to position itself through agreements on the conspiracy, whether by passing the sea borders in Lebanon, or with some local agreements in Iraq, but in return, it was not possible to achieve great gains. On the other hand, Israel has been working to change the military, political and security issues in the region as a whole from October 2023 until today, with the aim of weakening Iran and its influence by beating and weakening her friends.

There is no doubt that Iran needs an agreement, and Trump wants to start managing it with political and diplomatic performance at the regional level, and the real test this time will be around Lebanon, which has turned into an area for the Israeli-Iranian. conflict If Trump rushes to conclude a deal with the Iranians at the regional level as a whole, and Israel cannot achieve its goals and end Hezbollah’s military capabilities, the Iranians may and the Americans return to the characteristics of previous understandings that began work. to be woven between former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and US Secretary of State During the era of George Bush and Condoleezza Rice, an entire paper was drafted that included an extension of the April 1996 understanding to establish stability in the end of south Lebanon, finding a solution to the Shebaa Farms while first putting it under the protection of the United Nations to reach an understanding about it, then demarcating sea and land borders, integrating Hezbollah into Lebanese political life as part of the real structure of the Lebanese regime, and establishing a mechanism to control Hezbollah. weapons as part of a defense strategy. All these ideas are on the table again as a result of the war that Israel is waging against Lebanon. before Trump enters the White House and changes the course and direction of things, so Netanyahu will have achieved what he wants most militarily, so he can apply conditions to an agreement or any contract.