New subways for Berlin in the Stadler Pankow plant. Modern vehicles cost a lot of money. But in state politics there are efforts to reduce income from local transport.Markus Wächter/Berliner Zeitung
It is one of the central projects of the grand coalition. In the future it should also be possible to use all buses and trains in Berlin for only 29 euros per month. But now it is becoming increasingly clear that the permanent continuation of the 29-euro subscription ticket would put an enormous strain on the state budget.
Berlin would have to raise between 309 million and 470 million euros per year. Further ticket subsidies for 309 million would be added. This emerges from a calculation that is available to the Berliner Zeitung. The Senate Department for Mobility has compiled the figures.
This much is clear: the 29-euro subscription ticket is popular. The offer for regular customers, which was launched last October on the initiative of the SPD, is considered a success. It has “lead to a significant increase in the number of subscriptions by an estimated 175,000,” says the submission from the administration for the Senate Chancellery and the coalition.
“However, it can be assumed that these are largely occasional customers who have switched from the cash fare to a subscription.” In other words: Anyone who previously purchased single tickets or day tickets switched to the new ticket.
On the other hand, the number of ticket buyers who switched from private cars to public transport because of the 29-euro subscription ticket should be manageable, the paper continues.
“So far, there are no indications that customers have switched from other means of transport to public transport to a significant extent as a result of the offer,” the administration notes. “Similar effects are also known from the city of Vienna.” After the 365-euro annual ticket was introduced there, the market share of bus and train only increased by a single percentage point.
The popular offer will end in a few weeks. That has been foreseeable for months. In December, the supervisory board of the Verkehrsverbund Berlin-Brandenburg (VBB) decided that the 29-euro subscription ticket would be available until the end of April 2023 at the latest.
Not enough chip cards for a short-term continuation
Couldn’t the ticket that has been on offer since October 2022 simply remain in the program? A seamless continuation would be impossible, replies the Senate Department. The Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe (BVG), the S-Bahn Berlin and the other companies have already eliminated these subscriptions from their distribution systems.
The authors of the paper emphasize that it would be “not feasible” to enter the data again at short notice. After all, the transport companies have their hands full with incorporating the tariff increase on April 1st and the introduction of the Germany ticket. As reported, with the new Deutschlandticket it will be possible from May onwards to use almost all local and regional transport nationwide for 49 euros a month.
That’s not all, according to the tariff experts in the administration. It would also be difficult to obtain many plastic cards so quickly. A short-term continuation of the 29-euro subscription would “lead to a strong increase in the demand for chip cards”, according to the statement. The data carriers are currently not sufficiently available “due to a blatant lack of chip cards on the market that has existed for some time”. The introduction of the Deutschlandticket contributes to this deficiency. “Relief is not expected until autumn 2023,” according to the assessment.
Coalition circles: “The ticket is currently being financially planned”
In the meantime, the message has reached the new CDU/SPD coalition, at least in principle. There it is now also assumed that a seamless continuation of the offer is no longer possible. But according to information from the Berliner Zeitung, they are working on making it possible to resume this year. The aim is for the 29-euro ticket to be offered again in Berlin this summer. That would be sensible and correct, it was confirmed on Tuesday. “The ticket is currently being financially planned,” it said from coalition circles.
But what are the bottom line costs for the country? A look at page 15 of the administrative template is instructive. Adding up direct expenses and consequential effects, according to the current price level, Berlin would have to shoulder annual expenses of between 309 million and 470 million euros, it says.
In the long term, the 29-euro ticket would be an expensive boon for Berliners. The calculation is supplemented by “further burdens” amounting to 309 million euros per year. The bottom line is that this complex would burden the budget with a minimum of 618 million and a maximum of 779 million euros, according to the calculation.
Seniors and students would also ask for big discounts
On the one hand there are the direct costs for the continuation of the 29-euro ticket. They arise because subsidies for environmental card subscriptions would be due in Berlin on a permanent basis. In the final calculation, this is calculated rather conservatively: the calculated minimum would be 276 million euros per year, the maximum 302 million euros, it says on page 15 of the administrative paper. Price status: 2023.
On page 7, however, the authors make it clear that the direct costs will most likely be higher. The reason for this is that the country’s householders would have to factor in any further financial needs, it says. In view of this, around 320 million euros would have to be calculated for 2024. In 2027 it would already be 365 million euros.
But that’s just the first item on the bill. The second item with several items are the consequential effects if the price-reduced regular customer offer were to be resumed permanently. Because as a regular, unlimited offer, the 29-euro ticket will of course lead to desire among other customer groups, the administration expects. After all, the season tickets that have been offered to senior citizens, trainees, students and recipients of transfer payments are still significantly more expensive than 29 euros today.
The Senate would therefore not be able to avoid making these tickets in Berlin permanently cheaper. Depending on the extent to which the country gives in to demands and lowers prices, the annual cost to the country would range from 33 million to 168 million euros, they say.
Berlin pays 136 million euros a year for the Deutschlandticket – one way or the other
For the sake of completeness, the calculation of how much money the country would have to spend on ticket subsidies in the future should contain additional items, according to the Senate paper. The reason is that Berlin must of course continue to make today’s compensation payments.
An example: so that schoolchildren can travel by bus and train free of charge in the city, the Senate finances free school tickets for 52 million euros a year. From May, another item would be added to this list: In order for the Deutschlandticket to be introduced nationwide, the federal states and the federal states would pay into a common fund. Berlin’s state share is estimated at 135.7 million euros per year. Berlin would also have to pay this amount in any case – although it would be expected that only a few Berliners would buy the 49-euro ticket.
The Senate Department for Mobility, which has so far been headed by Senator Bettina Jarasch (Greens), does not want to comment on the internal paper. According to reports, the template should be on the table when the VBB supervisory board discusses the future of the 29-euro ticket on Thursday. However, a decision by this body is not expected until the next meeting, which will take place in June. But one thing is clear: the figures from the Senate administration will give experts and politicians food for thought.
