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Benetton ready to sell Autostrade

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GENOA, ITALY – MAY 03: General views of the new Genoa bridge light up with the italian flag colours on May 03, 2020 in Genoa, Italy. The Genoa bridge has been built in about two years after the collapsing of the Morandi bridge on 14 August 2018, where 43 people lost their lives. (Photo by Fabio Bussalino/Getty Images)

The decision has yet to be finalized, it must be substantiated with the percentages that everything is but details. But there is. Anticipated by the Sun 24 hours and confirmed a Huffpost from two top-level industrial sources. He says this: the Benettons are ready to give up control of Autostrade. Under certain conditions, yes, but the stakes count up to a certain point when the game came well beyond the ninetieth minute and the risk is what the Government, pressed by 5 stars, whistle the end with the revocation of the concession. After almost two years from the collapse of the Morandi bridge in Genoa, this time it is really decided. To the Council of Ministers to be held early next week. And for this the card of the descent below 50% in Autostrade should be put on the table immediately, at the latest in the next few days. Because for the Benettons that card costs so much, that is, the renunciation of being the owners of a strategic asset like highways are, but at the same time it would avoid the big hunt.

The Benetton move

The desire of the Benettons to loosen their presence within Autostrade has been known for months. The family, through Edizione, controls 30% of Atlantia, which in turn holds 88% of Autostrade. But until now he had thought about the possibility of diluting the quota down to a maximum of 51%, in order to hold the command bar in hand. The change of pace is in the new availability to go below the control quota. On one condition. And that is that the descent takes place through a capital increase by the subjects who will take control of the company. The suspects, already identified by the government, are the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and the F2i fund. They put the money and take over the majority shares, while Atlantia goes in the minority. In this way, that money goes to all of society, of which the Benettons would continue to be part of it anyway. And this method would allow the Benettons to also overcome the problem of the sale of the quota given that the Government, with the Milleproroghe decree, lowered the compensation in case of termination of the concession, bringing it from 23 to 7 billion. Lower compensation means that the value of the share of Atlantia is lower. And if the value is lower, the collection is lower when selling. In the proposal that the Benettons are considering submitting to the government there is also a binding indication that to enter Autostrade they must be top level players. The Cassa and F2i are, but this design still needs to be packaged and the Government has to do it. Just think that under the current conditions, the Cassa has not approached the dossier. First the field must be cleared of the issue of revocation. It is evident that the question can be resolved, but at present it is still in an embryonic form.

Will the 5 stars be convinced?

Moving from control to a minority share has an obvious impact on the negotiation and discussions that are breaking the government. Because the 5 stars could say that the Benettons are no longer the masters of Autostrade and thus bypass the failure to respect the great promise made the day after the collapse of the Morandi bridge, that is to go straight to the revocation. But it doesn’t have to be enough. And this is another problem that concerns the government, closed in a sort of labyrinth, where internal problems have at least a weight as those concerning the negotiation with Autostrade. Inside the Movement there are two opposing factions. The extremists who say revocation and that’s it, like Alessandro Di Battista, and those who are willing to accept the descent of the Benettons on the condition that they drop to at least 30 percent. And here comes another problem, that of the share that Atlantia will ultimately hold. The Benettons are still evaluating how far down. The circle, at least for the softer part of the 5 stars, would not close if they decided to remain around 49% or in any case above 30%.

In any case, finishing in the minority does not mean going out of the button room. Of course you don’t have the last and decisive word, but you can say it and even count. Just think of the weight Allianz has today in Autostrade even though it owns just 6% of the shares.

Meanwhile, the government is asking Autostrade for more money: “Three billion is not enough”. And a strong cut in tariffs

The question of the Benettons’ share is however only part of the story, which remains extremely tangled. The possibility of relinquishing control is an option that the Benettons could include in the new proposal that the Government asked Autostrade and Atlantia during a technical meeting with the Ministry of Transport. To the CEOs seated at the table, Roberto Tomasi and Carlo Albertazzo, the chief of staff of the Mit and the Treasury, flanked by the general secretary of Palazzo Chigi Roberto Chieppa, were told to put a new mediation on the table. At the latest by Sunday. The spin of some government officials speaks of an “ultimatum”, on the other side of the field there is talk of an “attempt to pacify”. But beyond the ways, content matters. At the top of the two companies, the government said that the proposals made so far are not going well. Clear message: so you go straight to the revocation. For the executive, the three billion put on the table by Autostrade is not enough, divided as follows: 1.5 billion for the drop in tariffs and further investments, 700 million for further maintenance and 800 million for Genoa. In addition to the commitment, currently frozen, to invest 14.5 billion until 2038 and to allocate 7 billion for routine maintenance.

The handover of government representatives to managers was clear: more money, three billion is not enough. And within a higher commitment, one of the central points is the cutting of tariffs. Here too, the executive gave a clear indication: the cuts must be spread over several years, but the more substantial one must be done immediately. First. In this way – and here comes the umpteenth reason for keeping the majority on the file – the 5 stars can say that citizens will pay more tolls and that the Benettons will collect less money. Even if there would be a short circuit and that is that the new Autostrade, where Cdp and F2i would have the majority, will collect the least. In short, the damage would not be caused exclusively by the Benettons. But this is a further tangle of a complex game.

Finally it is decided (at least so the government told Autostrade)

During the meeting, the government informed Autostrade that the decision on the dossier will be taken during a meeting of the Council of Ministers scheduled for the start of next week. The executive thus traced his decision-making road map: first it is clear if the new Autostrade proposal can go well on a technical level. If the disc turns green, then the word goes to the Cabinet. The options are three. Ministers can say that the offer is sufficient (if it improves), say that it is sufficient but it must be accompanied by the sale of the Benetton quota, thank and say that the only way forward is the revocation. But this reasoning was made in the dark, that is, without knowing the Benettons’ willingness to surrender the controlling stake. And, backwards, we still need to define the share bar. The complexity of the game is all here.

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