Forecast for the period 8 – 14 November
Dukena Zholeva, agrometeorologist at NIMH
The deepening autumn drought delayed the sowing of winter cereals and the progress of the initial phases of the vegetation of the sown autumn crops after the agrotechnical deadlines. In most of the Polish regions, there is no productive moisture in the 50 cm soil layer. Unusually low, below 45% of the PPV, is the level of moisture reserves in the 100cm layer in the northwestern regions and in many places in southern Bulgaria (farm stations: Knezha, Bazovets, Nikolaevo, Sandanski, Plovdiv, Pazardzhik, Sliven). Due to the lack of soil moisture, the sown winter cereals sprouted unevenly.
During most days of the next seven-day period, agrometeorological conditions will be determined by below-normal average day-night temperatures, close to the biological minimum necessary for the vegetation of wheat and barley. The expected rainfall until mid-November will be of no economic importance – up to 5-6l/m². The deficit of soil moisture remains a limiting factor for the development of autumn crops and will call into question the survival of some of the germinated and sprouted winter cereals in places in the Danube plain and in the southern regions of the country.
In mid-November, wheat will be dominated by the germination (uneven) and 1-2 leaf formation phases. There will be an exception in some places in the northeastern regions (Silistra, Provadia), where at the beginning of autumn local precipitation of economic importance fell. In these areas, part of the winter cereal crops will see the beginning of the 3rd leaf phase.
During the next period, the conditions will allow phytosanitary activities to be carried out on the fruit crops. Mid-November is a good time to plant fruit trees.
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