More than 100,000 Russian soldiers are on the border with Ukraine, according to Western intelligence. But there is a limit to how long they can stay there. Both declining morale and mild weather mean that President Vladimir Putin must make a decision quickly, military experts claim.
– There are limits to how long Putin can have his forces on such high alert. This is because the forces need to rest after a couple of days, and then it is impossible to have them in full war mode with the boots on day after day out in the terrain. This means that if Putin is to make full use of his military forces, he must soon use them, says pProfessor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense College.
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BELIEVES FORCES CAN BE MOVED SOON: Professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense College says it can be interpreted as indulgence if Putin now withdraws all forces.
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If Putin withdraws his forces, he thinks it will be interpreted as compliance.
– All possibilities are open
Several military experts believe the forces will not be able to stand where they are for long. When the mild weather comes, it also becomes difficult to maneuver the heavy military vehicles.
– If the soldiers are to be used, they will probably be used very soon, says analyst Nick Reynolds in the British think tank Rusi to The Guardian.
He believes the military leaders will want to move them if they are to be effective.
On Monday, Russia recognized the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states.
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Map of Eastern Ukraine showing the rebel-held areas as well as the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
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A few hours later, Russia announced that it would send what it called “peacekeeping forces” into the area.
These photos show military vehicles in the areas controlled by pro-Russian forces. It is uncertain who the unmarked vehicles belong to.
Senior researcher Karsten Friis at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (Nupi) believes there is little doubt that Russia will enter the rebel-controlled areas.
– I think they are already there, as far as I can see from open sources. Then it is asked if they want to attack elsewhere as well. In that case, there will be an escalation. All possibilities are still open, but the danger of a major attack is there. Then we can only hope that Putin says he is satisfied with having recognized these two breakaway republics, Friis says to NRK.
Do you think Putin is planning a major operation?
British Foreign Secretary Liz Tuss said on Wednesday that she believed Putin was planning a full invasion of Ukraine.
“We think it is very likely that he (Putin) will follow up his plan for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” Truss told Sky News.
Friis believes that the large Russian forces point in the direction that a major operation can be carried out.
– If we are to believe Putin’s words that Ukraine has almost no right to exist and that they do not want the country to move in a Western democratic direction, then there is no choice but to take the capital where power is. It does not help to occupy more land if that is the purpose, says Friis.
Ukraine is applying to participate in NATO’s MAP program, an action plan for future NATO membership. France and Germany are voting against after criticism from Russia. A compromise is reached that Ukraine will one day become a member of the alliance, without specifying how this will happen.
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych says no to a free trade agreement with the EU in favor of closer ties with Russia.
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Major protests against Yanukovych lead to his removal. Since then, an arrest warrant has been issued against the former president. Yanukovych flees to Russia.
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Russia takes control of the Crimean peninsula. Russia is being punished with economic sanctions, at the same time as being thrown out of the international forum “G8 countries” (now known as “G7 countries”).
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Pro-Russian separatists take control of parts of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian government forces strike back, but fail to retake all areas.
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Several ceasefire agreements are being entered into – the most recent in February 2015.
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According to the plan, the so-called Minsk agreements were to form the basis for a peaceful solution, but will never be realized.
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Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky wins the election to become the new president of Ukraine. He promises new peace talks with Russia and an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
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Satellite images show Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities say there are 100,000 Russian soldiers.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin demands that NATO guarantee an end to its eastern expansion and deny Ukraine membership. Biden threatens financial sanctions.
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In a conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky, President Joe Biden promises that the United States and its allies will react strongly if Russia invades Ukraine.
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Biden warns that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely and may be near.
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Leaders from several European NATO countries are meeting with Putin for diplomatic talks on the border situation between Russia and Ukraine. Several countries recommend their citizens to leave Ukraine.
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On 15 February, Minister of Defense Odd Roger Enoksen confirms that Norway is sending around 50 soldiers to NATO ally Lithuania in solidarity with the Defense Alliance. Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt warns of a possible refugee and energy crisis in Europe.
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Russia says military exercises on the Crimean peninsula are ending and that troops are withdrawing. NATO Secretary General Jens Stolteberg says that so far they have not seen any signs of downsizing from Russia, but that they rather seem to continue the rearmament.
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In a speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he recognized the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk and Luhansk rebel-held areas. A few hours later, Russia says it will send what it calls “peacekeeping forces” into the territories.
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The United States, the European Union (including Norway), the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan are imposing sanctions on Russia following Putin’s recognition of the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine. Among the sanctions is the halting of the energy project Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Russia, and that several banks and high-ranking individuals in Russian society will be financially punished.
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He believes an attack on Kyiv will start with air strikes in an attempt to knock out as much of the Ukrainian defense as possible.
– After a period, they will enter with ground forces along road axes. It’s quite mild, so they will not be able to drive heavy vehicles on the tundra. When they enter the city, it is difficult to operate tanks. Then it is one thing to take the city, another is to keep the city in a country where the entire population is against the occupiers, he says.
– Will not an attack on Kyiv be a military suicide for Putin?
– By rolling in and taking Kyiv, they would be militarily superior to Ukraine. But overthrowing the government and taking Kyiv is demanding militarily because it is a city, but they will manage it anyway. The question then is what happens afterwards.
Friis believes all rational arguments indicate that it is not wise to attack Kyiv.
– It is militarily expensive and economically expensive. Sanctions and increased gas prices. Lots of dead people and soldiers home in coffins. There are lots of rational counter-arguments against this. If they do this, I think it will be the beginning of the end for the Putin regime. But again, we see that he thinks differently than we do. It is not easy to predict, says Friis.
