Belarus opposition leader: ‘Migrants could turn against Lukashenko’s regime’

Two phone calls from Angela Merkel and an interview with the BBC. That is what Belarusian ruler Aleksandr Lukashenko has achieved so far by bringing thousands of migrants to the Polish border, thus harassing the EU. Apparently he has achieved his goal, says Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the figurehead of the Belarusian opposition. “He created this crisis to force Europe to talk to him. It’s blackmail, nothing else.”

But there is no such thing as a victory. “No one really recognizes Lukashenko. The sanctions remain in place, a new package is in preparation. He becomes more and more isolated. I hope, I believe, no I am sure that Europe will not give up its principles.”

For over a year, Tikhanovskaya has been traveling to European capitals to gain support for a democratic Belarus. It is an unexpected and forced mission, following the arrest of her husband, presidential candidate Sergei Tikhanovski, in May last year and her acceptance of his candidacy. In August, shortly after the fraudulent elections, she fled to Lithuania. As the opponent of Lukashenko, in power since 1994, she probably won more votes. In Vilnius, Tikhanovskaya and her team act as a government in exile.

Remarkably calm and thoughtful, Tikhanovskaya maneuvers through a hectic agenda. She is in the Netherlands for one day. Between talks in The Hague, speaking at the Nexus conference and a meeting with Belarusians in the Netherlands, there is time for an interview. While she sits down and looks out over the Amstel from hotel De L’Europe: “We have to take the time every day to see how beautiful everything is.”

Read also this question about the migrants at the border of Poland and Belarus

Lukashenko presents his contact with Merkel as a victory over ‘weak’ Europe. Do you blame her for calling him?

“I understand why she did that, for humanitarian reasons. The migrants were in an impossible situation. But for Belarusians it is incomprehensible. The same goes for the BBC interview. The BBC calls it freedom of speech, but we shouldn’t give this man a platform. Attention and recognition, that’s what he wants, and you shouldn’t give that to him. We need to kick him out of the media. And we certainly shouldn’t call him ‘president’, because he isn’t.”

The acute humanitarian crisis has now been averted, but the migrants are stuck in Belarus. Will that be a problem for Lukashenko?

“That will certainly be a big problem. We are working hard to fly people back, but according to our information there are now about 10,000 migrants in Belarus. They may turn against the regime because they have been cheated. It is still uncertain how it will turn out, but his plan will probably turn like a boomerang against Lukashenko.”

Do you regret that the border crisis is diverting Western attention from the repression in Belarus itself?

“I regret the plight of the migrants. But yes, it distracts attention. We try again and again to draw attention to the fate of the 876 political prisoners. That’s hard, because you don’t see them. Image is crucial, and Lukashenko makes use of that. Belarusian state TV showed many children of migrants, western media were allowed in the border area. The BBC should also interview political prisoners, but of course that is not possible.”

Read also this report from the Polish border area

What is Putin’s role in the crisis?

“There is no evidence of his direct involvement, but the president of Russia is silent. He can take advantage of Lukashenko’s weakness, increase his influence over Belarus. For the West, he is now relatively democratic. For us Belarusians, we don’t want to ruin our relationship with the Kremlin. We are neighbors, we will remain so. Let’s continue the relationship. Don’t let one person spoil everything.”

Putin has called on Lukashenko to talk to the opposition. Are you prepared to do that?

“For us, the release of all political prisoners is an absolute precondition for a dialogue. You can’t talk to hostages, to prisoners. A direct conversation between me and Lukashenko is out of the question. You don’t have to, there are plenty of other options. It can also be at the level of ministers or parliamentarians. Maybe through an intermediary. Maybe through Angela Merkel, or someone else.”

You are seeking a change of power through new elections. How can that be achieved?

“In the best scenario, brave people from Lukashenko’s entourage distance themselves from him. With those people we can talk about the future of Belarus. Lukashenko is afraid of betrayal, afraid that people around him will unite against him. That’s why he keeps changing ministers. Our hopes are also pinned on business people who want to protect their companies against ever-increasing sanctions. They have a lot to lose.”

Read also this interview with Belarusian writer Sasja Filipenko

Are the sanctions effective?

“European sanctions can be circumvented too easily. Belarusian potash, a crucial export product [nodig voor kunstmest, red.], 80 percent is still supplied to Europe. According to the regime, trade between Belarus and the Netherlands has increased fivefold since the sanctions. That is propaganda, we have to check if that is correct. But the Netherlands is now the third trading partner for Belarus, after Russia and Ukraine.”

You get a lot of support in words, less in deeds. Is that frustrating?

“Knowing that my children haven’t seen their father in over a year, and that people are being tortured in prisons right now, I think I can do a lot more. I try to understand the economic and geopolitical interests. But when countries are so outspoken about human rights and humanitarian values, and then don’t act on them, it’s very hard to understand.”

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