The Latvian Foreign Policy Institute (LAI) has published a new publication on the impact of the post-election events in Belarus in 2020 on the security of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.
It concludes that the forced landing of a commercial aircraft and the outbreak of a migrant crisis have demonstrated the unpredictability of the Belarussian authorities and that new destabilizing activities cannot be ruled out.
As a result of the post-election events, Belarus has become a direct threat to the security of the region and its immediate neighbors.
The publication reveals that in the Latvian context, the migration crisis initiated by Belarus became a turning point in the review of mutual security relations. The events on the border surprised Latvia unprepared, showing the insufficient risk to be assessed in relations with the authoritarian state, and transformed Latvian-Belarusian relations, including in the field of security.
At the same time, the publication explains that Belarus is a difficult neighbor not only for the Baltic States and Poland, but also for Russia. Despite Russia’s strong military influence, Belarus has not yet become a satellite power. In practice, Russia’s gains from military influence in Belarus are limited. Belarus is likely to continue to be a challenge not only for neighboring NATO members but also for Russia.
The publication is available from the Latvian Institute of Foreign Policy Homepage.
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