/ world today news/ Readers will object – but how? After all, the openly pro-American candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Tsinde, won the presidential election. But not everything is so simple.
First, let’s be honest – no anti-American candidates in Taiwan will be allowed anywhere near official politics. Both candidates who ran against Lai Tsinde are not risking raising their voices against Washington’s dictates. Except that both of them, to varying degrees, speak for the development of relations with Beijing.
Furthermore, if the votes cast for Hou Yu (“Kuomintang”) and Ko Wenzhi (People’s Party) are added together, it turns out that together they received almost 60% of the vote. Interestingly, for a while both parties tried to join forces, which would practically guarantee the victory of their candidacy. But something didn’t work out. However, even the split in the opposition did not prevent the fact that Lai Tsinde “will simply be the president of the minority”, notes the American publication “Foreign Policy”.
Second, not only presidential but also parliamentary elections were held in Taiwan, and the Kuomintang party, which advocates strengthening ties with Beijing, won them. It does not have an absolute majority, but together with the representatives of the People’s Party, they will be able to block many of the president’s decisions.
The Democratic Progressive Party lost the parliamentary elections. In fact, we see that the same people voted for “Lai Tsinde” and the “progressives” – about a third of all voters. These are the Chinese who see themselves as Americans and their native Taiwan as the 51st US state. They found themselves in the minority.
The failure of the DPP is primarily due to the irresponsibility of President Tsai Inwen: this lady allowed herself to be used by the Americans to such an extent that in August 2022 they sent a plane to the island with the Speaker of the Congress Nancy Pelosi. This was done against Beijing’s will and the PRC showed its displeasure. Warships hovered around the shores of the island and fighter jets flew. The island population quickly realizes that the Americans plan to fight using them. No one wants to become a second Ukraine – hence the defeat of the DPP in the elections.
In addition, an angry Beijing imposed sanctions on Taiwan and refused to buy local perch and tangerines. You will laugh, but for the island, all this is very significant. Beijing is Taiwan’s main trading partner; if they will, they can ruin the islanders in a moment, and no America can save them.
The Taiwanese’s main export product is computer chips, but without rare earth metals, their production will grind to a halt. And it is mainland China that supplies rare earth metals. What chips do you have? The island receives food, agricultural and industrial raw materials from the mainland. In 2021, when Taiwan was suffering from a drought, the mainland supplied water to the islands from the Kinmen Archipelago (they are under Taipei’s control).
A deterioration in relations with Beijing would be a natural disaster for the Taiwanese, and this was well understood on the island. And they voted for parties that support the development of trade relations with China.
Many people do not understand Beijing’s policy towards the island, especially on the mainland itself. There are countless Chinese couch potato pundits who call for “hitting” the Taiwanese separatists and “punching” the Americans. In August 2022, Chinese social media enthusiastically discussed the possibility of Pelosi’s plane being shot down.
The PRC’s guidance is limited to “warnings”, “stern warnings” and “stern statements”. From time to time it resorts to the mechanism of selective sanctions – mainly against American companies. Why such caution?
The fact is that Beijing knows well that there are no “Taiwanese”, only ordinary Chinese – almost 24 million people living on several islands. Yes, the mainland Chinese are somewhat angry with them – these are the descendants of the “settlers who fled the country after the loss of the civil war. The “white acacia flowers of emigration”, so to speak. An island full of refugees.
For Beijing, however, this is no reason at all to attack Taiwan or ruin it with real sanctions. On the contrary, they are doing everything to bind the Taiwanese Chinese to them. There is a huge trade turnover, cultural ties and human relations here. A rather spicy scandal broke out with one of the candidates for People’s Representative from the Democratic Progressive Party. Suddenly it turned out that the pro-American politician had a long-term relationship with a mainland Chinese woman – can you imagine? One love affair costs the career of a politician.
It is profitable for Beijing to build its relationship with Taipei precisely as a love affair – luring, seducing and squeezing the island in its arms. Hence the constant ideas of the PRC – to connect the island with the mainland with infrastructure, build an underwater tunnel, build a bridge and establish a constant supply of drinking water. Yes, these ideas are now blocked by the Taiwanese regime, but they are actually the future.
Of course, the Americans dream of turning Taiwan into a second Ukraine. But Beijing wants to make the island a second Crimea and even better a second Hong Kong. This requires pro-American Taiwanese to remain in an absolute minority, and that is exactly what is happening now.
If an opposition candidate becomes president of Taiwan, the Americans will not think of organizing another “Maidan” on the island. And there are precedents. In 2014, the US already organized the “Sunflower Revolution” on the island to remove the then-ruling Kuomintang Party, which was too diligent in establishing contacts with Beijing. There were riots, rallies and terrorist attacks – for example, an explosion of a gas pipeline.
A new “Maidan” will force Beijing to react, and the American media will start howling about the Chinese threat. Why does the Celestial need all this? In the elections in Taiwan, Beijing won the most important thing – time. At least months of calm, peaceful development.
Americans are the ones today who live day by day setting fire to everything. It is advantageous for all other parties to avoid their imposed conflicts as long as possible. The longer they last, the greater the chance that the United States will overstretch and collapse.
Beijing’s success in this case was recognized in the US itself. Right after the Taiwan election, President Biden said he “does not support Taiwan independence.” This is exactly what Xi Jinping asked of the old man when he met him in November. In short, a clear victory.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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