China-Taiwan: exercises or preparations for war? The vice-rector at the Milan Polyclinic: “An escalation would have disastrous consequences for countries that depend on semiconductors“
New Chinese military maneuvers around Taiwan. Jets and warships circle the island for the second time in less than five months, right after the speech Lai Ching-tethe Taiwanese president who reiterated with absolute firmness his absolute independence and refusal of any submission to Beijing. On the one hand, China, with its traditional “one China policy”, sees Taiwan as a rebellious province to be reunified, even by force if necessary. On the other hand, the United States has defined the Chinese moves as “unjustified” and reiterated that their support for Taiwan will not falter.
However, from a broader perspective, the issue goes beyond the single crisis between Beijing and Taipei. If we look at global tensions, the real battleground of the next world war seems to be clearly outlined: the Asia-Pacific. This explains Beijing’s cautious approach both towards the conflict between Israel and its enemies and towards the war between Russia and Ukraine, which continues to destabilize Europe. But why Asia and, in particular, Taiwan? Affaritaliani.it he spoke about it with Giuliano Noci, vice-rector of the Chinese Territorial Hub at Polytechnic of Milan and artificial intelligence expert.
Professor, China has deployed fighter planes and warships around Taiwan, calling these operations mere “exercises.” But what is hidden behind these maneuvers? Are these just “warnings” or are we facing a potential escalation?
This exercise is a direct reaction to the speech of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, who clearly stated that he did not want to align himself with Beijing. It is a predictable response, almost an automatic reflex: China cannot tolerate similar statements from Taiwan. The Chinese population is deeply nationalistic and sees Taiwan as an integral part of China. This is the underlying context.
However, we must make some further considerations. First of all, China is going through a moment of strong economic weakness. There is pessimism among the population about the future, and this pushes the government to look for an external enemy to unite the country. An interesting aspect of this operation is that, for the first time, the entire island of Taiwan was surrounded: China occupied all four sides, sending a clear message to Taiwan: that Beijing can strangle it economically, rather than militarily. Not surprisingly, a Taiwanese soldier called this tactic the “anaconda strategy.” In essence, China will not allow Taiwan any deviation, but is unlikely to move militarily in the immediate future, aware of the complexity of such an operation. It is more likely to continue with economic suffocation.
All this fits into a global framework of widespread tensions. The United States is in a moment of extreme weakness, and when all the great powers – China, Russia, the United States, Europe – are weak, chaos takes over. This is the real concern: the absence of an actor capable of restoring order, leaving the situation at risk of irreversible deterioration.
If Beijing continues to raise the bar, how will the US react? Is World War III really a real possibility or pure science fiction?
It’s not science fiction at all. Recently, a text by Professor Zheng Yongnian, one of China’s leading geopoliticians and very close to Xi Jinping, went around the world. In his essay “World War III and the Asian Powder Keg”, Zheng argues that, if there is a Third World War, it will originate in Asia. And he’s right. Taiwan is the main potential trigger: a situation that could be compared to the “Sarajevo gun”. Let us not forget that Taiwan is crucial for China not only for historical and territorial reasons, but also for its economic importance: produces 80% of the world’s semiconductors, making it a global strategic target.
What could be Italy’s margin for maneuver in promoting diplomatic de-escalation, considering its strong energy dependence on the Middle East and its need for green and chip technologies, of which Taiwan is the main supplier?
Italy, like Europe, doesn’t touch the ball. We are marginal, almost irrelevant on a global level, and Europe is completely absent in these scenarios. We must be realistic: we have neither the strength nor the capacity to play a significant role in a possible de-escalation, despite our energy and technological dependencies.
Given the global dependence on chips produced in Taiwan, how might an escalation of conflict impact countries that rely heavily on this resource, especially in light of the development of artificial intelligence? Would the whole world be affected?
An escalation would have disastrous consequences, especially for those countries that depend on Taiwanese semiconductors. Taiwan produces 80% of advanced chips, vital not only for technological devices, but also for the development of artificial intelligence. A supply disruption would hit every economic sector hard, from digital to automotive. However, China is taking action: as it did with the electric car, it is investing massively to develop its own capacity to produce chips independently, focusing on technologies such as photonic chips. It is not yet autonomous, but could become so soon. Europe, on the other hand, is much more exposed. It invests 20 times less than the US in advanced technologies and 50 times less in artificial intelligence. It does not have its own chip manufacturing capacity and risks finding itself in an extremely vulnerable position if it does not move quickly.
Can China really maintain its strategic neutrality while the stability of the Middle East falters and its energy supplies are at risk?
China is playing a complex game. On the one hand, it is part of a sort of “gang of four” with North Korea, Iran and Russia, increasingly united in opposition to the West. Its strategy is to establish itself as a superpower, like the United States, and to do so it exerts its influence on a number of countries, especially in the Middle East. Tensions in that region, in fact, play in China’s favor, as they undermine the legitimacy of American power, demonstrating that the United States has less and less control. China is watching Iran’s moves with interest, but cannot afford for the situation to go beyond a certain limit.
Beijing’s domestic economic weakness still makes it crucial for the country to maintain exports to the West. For this reason, while on the one hand it winks at Iran and other interlocutors in the region, on the other it does not suit it to go too far. The fact that energy prices are not rising significantly is a sign: China is not demanding large quantities of oil precisely because its domestic economy is fragile. It will be crucial to watch how Beijing maneuvers in this context, but one thing is certain: it will not reveal its true intentions until it is sure that its moves will work in its favor.
