Beef slaughter and production falls by 8%, but consumption falls even more

So far this year, shipments to slaughter have increased to 10.3 million animals through September. This means a drop of almost 8.3% compared to the previous year. The trend indicates that 13.5 million cattle will be slaughtered this year, about 1 million less than last year. Meat production would then be reduced by 250/300 thousand tons.

On the other hand, exports this year grew by 6% until August. Everything seems to indicate that, despite the competitiveness problems, the final volume would reach 920/930 thousand tons of beef with bone, so it would hold 28% of the business.

Beef consumption per person would end the year at an average of 45/46 kilos, which would mean a drop of 11% compared to last year’s average. The reduction in consumption is even greater if we take into account that, despite the lower supply, prices have accumulated a delay in 6 months of almost 40%.

At the same time, in September, 1.17 million cattle were sent to the slaughterhouses, which shows a decrease of 3.3% compared to August. This speaks of a slow move towards moderation due to the seasonal drop in cow supply, which is compensated by high light load slaughter from forages.

Last month, 248,000 animals were sent to slaughter, which accounts for a 12% month-on-month drop. It is normal during the productive period of breeding, as the discards which are normal at the end of autumn and the time of lambing and pregnancy begin.

The free range fats still have a lot of income. According to Senasa, they have 1.98 million animals. In the last few months they have been locking up less than what is coming out and a large part of what they are offering is keeping heifers and steers that have the supply has been high since August and will remain so at least until the beginning of December.

According to analysts, improvements in slaughter cattle prices cannot be expected until then, which in turn will depend on the ability to pay for consumption, which usually declines after the cheap -days. We may have to wait until we return from vacation to see big changes in farm and meat prices in the local market.