He Domestic consumption of beef would fall 8.7% year-on-year to 2,200,000 tons of bone-in beef (r/c/h) in 2024which represents a loss of 200 thousand tons compared to the previous year, while simultaneously projecting declines in production and exportsaccording to a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
In this way, the stock market entity projected on average interannual losses of 8% in production and 6.1% in shipments abroad.
In the case of production, the report estimated for next year a volume of 3,024,000 tons r/c/h compared to 3,285,000 in 2023. With the same trend, he projected a decrease in exports up to 824,000 tons compared to 877,000 tons the previous year.
Beef: the causes of falls in consumption, production and exports
According to the BCR, the economic context of 2023 had a severe impact in the beef market.
In that line, They contextualized that “the year 2023 will go down in the history of Argentina for having witnessed one of the worst droughts experienced by the country: grain production fell by nearly 40% year-on-year”which generated “serious difficulties for the Argentine economy, given that agroindustrial chains contribute 1 of every 4 pesos collected by the National State, employ 1 of every 5 workers in the private sector, account for 2 of every 3 dollars that come in to the country for exports and represent 20% of the Argentine GDP”.
On the other hand, they highlighted that “As there was a shortage of pastures as a result of the lack of water, the agents of the livestock activity were forced to send a large number of heads to slaughter, resulting in high production and export numbers, as well as a recovery in consumption compared to the previous two years.
Along these lines, they stated that In the first 11 months of the year, 13.4 million head were slaughtered, 9.7% above the average of the last 5 years for the same period, At the same time, more than 800,000 tons (beef with bone equivalent) would have been exported, 23.6% above the average.
In addition, the BCR estimated that domestic consumption reached 2.2 million tons, that is, 2.4% more than the average of the last 5 years.
Regarding next year, on the other hand, the entity highlighted that by 2024 they estimate that Beef consumption will represent the highest percentage of Argentine meat consumption.
Thus, domestic consumption is expected to be around 5.1 million tons, of which beef will account for 43% in 2024, followed by poultry at 42% and pork at 15%.
In addition, the BCR considered for 2024 that “sustaining the El Niño phenomenon would be favorable, in principle, for pastures and the possibility of making a transition towards a stock retention phase, and assuming this scenario, it is estimated that in 2024 the slaughter would present a decrease of 9 % year-on-year, reaching levels close to 13.1 million heads.
On the other hand, regarding demand, according to the report, it is projected that the year the exported volume of meat reaches a value of approximately US$2,645 million, contributed 90% by beef, 9% by poultry and 1% by pork, marking a 4% year-on-year drop.
Poultry and pork meats: better prospects
However, the so-called Complementary meats – poultry and pork – could register increases in their indicators in 2024.
Thus, in the case of poultry meat, the BCR estimated a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in production to 2,353,000 tons; 1% in the case of consumption; and a positive variation of 31.6% in exports.
It would also register positive variations in all its indicators. pork sector, since the entity projected an increase of 4.1% in production, 2.9% in consumption and 4.3% in exports.
2023-12-24 18:04:27
#Beef #estimate #consumption #production #exports #fall
