If the omicron variant BF.7 prevails against its “sister” BQ.1.1 in winter, the corona pandemic could enter an endemic state. What prospects does the new subtype promise.
Berlin/Bremen – Two variants of the corona virus are currently gaining ground. The well-known omicron subtype BQ.1.1 with the nickname “Hellhound” and another subtype that hasn’t made much public appearance yet: omicron BF.7. There is currently a contest between the two. Which of the two Omikron variants that can assert itself will probably determine the course of winter – and that would turn out very different in each case.
The new Omikron BF.7 variant is similar to the Omikron BA.5 that appeared in the summer
According to the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, a winter with Omikron BF.7 would definitely be the “best case”, as he stated in an interview with time He says. He immediately explains why he hopes that omicron BF.7 and not the omikmron subtype BQ.1.1 will soon become the dominant variant: BF.7 is very similar to omicron BA.5, against which a large part of the population is already immune because it was responsible of many infections during the so-called summer surge of 2022. With the Omikron BF.7 “there would then be a gentle winter surge”, according to Drosten’s assessment. There may also be the possibility of the pandemic entering an endemic state.
New Omikron BF.7 variant: Compared to Omikron BQ.1.1 the “best case” for winter
According to the virologist, the reason why the progression curve in a winter with Omikron BF.7 would not be as strong as in previous years is that people who fell ill with Omikron BA.5 in the summer still have some immunity protection against this form of viruses. After a few months you are already a little more susceptible to reinfection. However, defenses acquired through disease could often be sufficient to prevent infection with the omicron BF.7 variant.
Vaccinations protect against omicron variants: BQ.1.1 can bypass immune protection more easily than omicron BF.7
According to Drosten there would also be vaccinations, which would also protect against these subforms of the virus with vaccines adapted to Omicron and would thus have amortized the total number of serious courses and deaths. “It wasn’t a virus that made the omicron so much milder that it made him less sick, but vaccination,” Drosten points out to the time once again the importance of vaccination in the fight against the pandemic.
With Omikron BQ.1.1 instead of BF.7 as the predominant variant, winter could “be tough again”
In the case of the Omicron virus variant BQ.1.1, which is also on the rise, the situation is different: Since the “Hellhound” BQ.1.1 is not only highly contagious and apparently more resistant to treatment with antiviral drugs, but has also increasingly successful in evading immune protection through a vaccination or a surviving Covid-19 disease. Should BQ1.1 and not Omikron BF.7 prevail, then according to Drosten “winter could be difficult again”.
Germany between Omikron BQ.1.1 and BF.7: Drosten sees “signs of near end of pandemic” in past waves
In general, however, the virologist is rather cautiously optimistic about the further course of the corona pandemic, because there are currently many signs in his eyes that the situation is easing. The dynamics of the last corona waves in summer and autumn can be interpreted in such a way that the situation for the virus is becoming precarious. Because it has usually stabilized relatively quickly even without protective measures such as the general obligation to wear masks or lockdowns. For him, the dynamic sequence of several waves is “a sign of the near end of the pandemic,” says Drosten.
Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB: Will there be more dangerous mutations again?
The Berlin researcher does not expect a nasty surprise in the short term in the form of a more dangerous Sars-CoV-2 variant than the currently widespread BF.7, BQ.1.1 or XBB. In his opinion, the virus has “stuck” in terms of the possibility of mutation. All of these shapes evolved from the Omikron BA.5 variant. “At many points in its evolution, the virus cannot easily reverse itself,” Drosten explains. The corona virus could no longer, as before, completely turn the game around with just a few mutations.
China is worried about more dangerous mutations
To further increase in terms of danger, the virus would need “a sort of revolution, through a renewed massive spread in some part of the world”. The virologist’s concern therefore also applies to China with its zero-Covid strategy, which is completely different from how the corona virus is handled everywhere. “Immunity is distributed quite evenly throughout the world, in industrialized countries through infection through vaccination, in poorer countries even through multiple infections of the population. In China, on the other hand, this is not the case”.
The virus could once again mutate in a different direction than BQ.1.1 or BF.7
Despite lockdowns, daily mass testing, strict checks, contact tracing and enforced quarantine, the number of infections in China has recently increased again. According to Drosten, this could be the ground on which the corona virus could take a completely different direction in terms of mutations than those that are now generally emerging, even with BQ.1.1 and BF.7.
