Ukrainian soldiers fire a howitzer at the Russian camp in Audiiyuka, in the eastern Donetsk region, on the 19th. Audi Iuka/AP Yonhap News
[왜냐면] Sangnam Park | Hanshin University Global Human Resources Professor
Domestic views on the war in Ukraine are rather narrow. This war is often described as the prelude to a new Cold War in which the two camps, the United States and the West, and Russia and China face each other. In particular, some see this war as Russia’s counterattack against the US’ unilateral NATO expansion policy. However, it is difficult to find an interpretation that Putin’s imperialistic thinking to subjugate Ukraine is one of the important causes of this war. This war is close to Russia’s war for colonial expansion. Moreover, it is difficult to justify Russia’s aggression at the cost of many lives. Therefore, a broader perspective and insight are needed to accurately grasp the impact of this war. For example, is Russia-China relations strong enough to form an anti-US alliance? Can this war be viewed from the perspective of power competition between Russia and China? Recently, the relationship between Russia and China, which cooperates in the fields of diplomacy, security, energy, and economy, seems very close. However, the view that views Russia-China relations as an anti-American alliance overlooks the fact that the two countries have different goals and ideologies. In particular, Russia and China, facing the world’s longest border, are competing for power in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, Russia’s traditional spheres of influence. From Russia’s point of view, NATO from the west and China from the east are encroaching on its territory. The rise of China, as well as NATO’s expansion, is a potential threat to Russia. For this reason, Russia has continuously kept China’s expansion in check. After China promoted the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, Russia created the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), an economic community centered on itself, the following year. It was urgent to protect Central Asia from the influence of the Chinese economy. Russia also opposed China’s railway construction through Central Asia for about 25 years. Putin’s dream of building a great power is possible only when China’s expansion is blocked. Even in the border dispute between China and India that occurred in 2020, Russia put India first. In addition, India joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and uses it to contain China. China also does not want Russia to dominate Ukraine and become stronger. This is because China’s expansion of power can be strongly checked by Russia. This is one of the reasons why China is passive in supporting Russia in this war. China did not support Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea or its 2008 invasion of Georgia. Considering this, the nature of Russia-China relations is more like expedient and provisional cooperation to keep the US in check and pursue their own interests, rather than a solid alliance. Meanwhile, some predict that Russia and China can unite India, Brazil, and South Africa to form an anti-American front. But China and India have deep-rooted conflicts over territorial issues. Also, the hypothesis that democratic countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa will build an anti-American bloc with authoritarian countries such as Russia and China is not persuasive. Rather, we should be able to see that it is a geopolitical structure in which Russia and India cannot but feel a sense of crisis as China rises. In addition, sustained economic growth, which is a national task of Russia and China, can only be achieved by linking with Western markets and technologies. Because of this, Xi Jinping and Putin are saying that they do not want a new cold war that cuts off the Western economy. On the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, opinions are divided on the future prospects. In particular, there are predictions that Russia, which has exhausted its national power in this war, will collapse or become subordinate to China. The biggest beneficiary in this case is China. China is already benefiting from the war in Ukraine. Chinese companies are occupying Russia’s domestic market, where Western companies have withdrawn due to US sanctions. Isolated Russia is forced to hand over its markets and resources to China at a bargain price. As such, the war in Ukraine is accelerating Russia’s subordination to China. This is why the international community needs to gain insight into the essence of Russia-China relations and seek countermeasures. If the war is prolonged and Russia weakens, power will shift sharply to China. If the balance of power between Russia and China is disrupted, uncertainty in the international order will also increase. Conflicts could arise, for example, on Russian territory and within Central Asia. In addition, as China, which has grown in power, acts more wildly in Taiwan and the South China Sea, the conflict between the US and China is expected to intensify. Therefore, in order to prevent further sacrifices, the international community should open an exit to Russia and Ukraine and persuade them to end the war as soon as possible. Behind-the-scenes negotiations between the US and Russia are already taking place. One can imagine how Ukraine could concede Crimea and the Donbass region and instead obtain a security guarantee comparable to NATO membership and EU membership. If these efforts are in full swing, the war may not last long.
