As U.S. inflation data cooled and the Federal Reserve slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes, financial markets continued to rise in recent weeks. Bitcoin even rose to $24,000, a new high in half a year. However, some of the most prestigious Wall Street shorts have recently They warned one after another that the market bear market may not be over yet. The following is an inventory of the big bears on Wall Street who have issued warnings.
(Recap:U.S. non-farm payrolls exceed expectations by 3 times” U.S. stocks and Bitcoin fall; Fed may increase interest rate hikes）
(background supplement:BTC fell to 23,000 mg!Data: Retail investors fell into FOMO after breaking through 20,000, adding 620,000 new addresses）
withWith the U.S. inflation data continuing to cool, the consumer price index (CPI) grew at an annual rate of 6.5% in December, the lowest annual growth rate since October 2021, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes as expected by the market , Encouraging the overall market, driving US stocks and cryptocurrencies to continue to rise.
However, on the 3rd, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States unexpectedly increased by 517,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations.In fact, Bloombergreportsome of the most prestigious Wall Street shorts have warned in recent days that the bear market may not be over yet. The following is a list of the big shorts on Wall Street who have issued warnings recently.
Jim Chanos: Market prices are still too high
Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, the world’s largest short-short hedge fund, warned on the sidelines of the iConnections Global Alts 2023 conference in Miami last week that basically no one under the age of 40 has really invested professionally in a bear market.
In the view of Jim Chanos, the “unwinding” of fraud in the market often lags in the financial cycle, so investors may be more cautious when lending and investing in customers with questionable or incomplete businesses, and his main The concern is that current corporate profit margins are 50% higher than normal and that market prices are still too high.
Paul Singer: Fears of a disorderly crash
Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Investment Management, the world’s largest activist fund, warned at a private event last week at the Miami Association of Managed Funds that there could be a “disorderly plunge” in the market, with current market valuations higher than during the dot-com bubble, Even before the Great Depression in 1929.
Paul Singer thinkThe bear market is not over yet, a 20% decline may not be enough, more than 10 years of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, it is impossible to lift within a year, he also pointed out that the inflation rate data is higher than the level mentioned in the news reports, It is unrealistic to focus on core CPI indicators that exclude food and energy.
Nassim Taleb: Oncology is prevalent in the market
Nassim Taleb, author of the best-selling book “The Black Swan Effect” and an adviser to tail risk hedge fund Universa Investments, warned last week that “tumors” are prevalent across the market, including cryptocurrencies, real estate and cash-burning companies that are still staggering forward. will get better:
The market’s current valuations are among the strangest in history.
Mark Spitznagel: The biggest time bomb in financial history may detonate
Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer at Universa Investments, said last week that ballooning debt in the global economy would wreak havoc on markets on par with the Great Depression of 1929:
Objectively speaking, this is the largest ticking time bomb in financial history, bigger than that of the late 1920s, and could have similar market consequences.
Jeremy Grantham: US stocks may plunge another 50%
Jeremy Grantham, the founder of GMO, an asset management organization known as the “Value Investing Master”, published his “2023 Outlook Letter” on January 24.expressalthough the most extreme bubbles in the market have been erased, US stock valuations are still well above the long-term average.
Jeremy Grantham predicts that by the end of 2023, the S & P 500 index will fall to 3200 points, which means that the index will fall by more than 20% this year. Plummeted 50%.
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