Economic analysts consulted by Citibanamex projected that the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) will make a cut of a quarter of a percentage point to the reference rate in its next monetary policy meeting.
The latest Citibanamex Expectations Survey, which is carried out every 15 days among analysis areas of banks, brokerage firms, consulting firms, among other financial entities, indicates that the 37 participants foresee that the central bank’s governing board will reduce by 25 basis points the reference rate in November.
The reference rate – the instrument that sets the cost at which companies and families are financed – is currently at a level of 10.50 percent, and with the planned movement it would remain at 10.25 percent.
The specialists consulted by Citibanamex anticipate that at the end of the year the interest rate will be at a level of 10 percent, which would imply a cut of more than a quarter of a point to the objective that would be announced at the last monetary policy meeting in December. .
While by the end of 2025, the economists consulted by the bank project that the rate will be at a level of 8 percent.
Growth, inflation and exchange rate
According to the Survey, by the end of the year GDP growth is anticipated to be 1.5 percent, while by 2025, the first full year of Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, the projection is that activity will have an advance of 1 percent.
Citibanamex noted that the projection for the exchange rate at the end of this year was revised to 19.80 pesos per dollar from a level of 19.67 units per greenback in the previous survey, and for the end of 2025 the estimate also increased from 19.95 to 20.10 .
Regarding inflation, the economists consulted by the bank anticipated that it will end the year at a level of 4.40 percent, a forecast slightly lower than the 4.44 percent presented a fortnight ago.
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