Mexico City. The Bank of Mexico (BdeM) has ‘strongly’ revised downward its economic growth forecast for Mexico for 2024, from 2.4 percent to 1.5 percent, due to the fact that a lower dynamism of investment is anticipated due to the uncertainty that persists, both due to internal and external factors.
During the presentation of the Quarterly Report April-June 2024, the monetary authority explained that the national economy is going through a period of marked weakness.
He described that in the last quarter of 2023, the economy registered a slight contraction. It subsequently showed marginal progress in the first quarter of this year.
“The March report predicted a recovery in the pace of economic activity expansion in the second quarter. However, growth in that period continued to surprise on the downside and was significantly lower than expected,” the BdeM said in the document.
Thus, the forecast for GDP variation in 2024 as a whole published in the current Quarterly Report is lower than that of the previous report.
The Mexican central bank expects economic growth in 2024 and 2025 to be moderate, supported mainly by domestic spending, as private consumption and, to a lesser extent, private investment continue to expand.
“The contribution of investment will be lower than previously anticipated, given the lower dynamism that this aggregate has shown and the environment of uncertainty that persists due to both internal and external factors.”
Although positive effects of public spending are still expected, the authorities expect these to be lower than originally anticipated.
External demand is expected to continue to show a low contribution to growth in Mexico during 2024, given the expectation that weakness in the manufacturing sector in the United States will persist.
By 2025, the best expected performance of that country’s industrial production would contribute to greater external demand for the country, although these forecasts are subject to high uncertainty, acknowledged the Bank of Mexico, chaired by Victoria Rodríguez Ceja.
But for 2025 it also cut its economic growth forecast from 1.5 percent to 1.2 percent.
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– 2024-09-03 23:12:04
