With a long analysis, the BBC reveals the five facts that have been formed in the Middle East and on the international diplomatic chessboard after almost a month of war between Israel and Hamas.
Specifically, in a text signed by the distinguished British journalist, Jeremy Bowen, an expert in international relations, Netanyahu’s responsibilities, the failure of Israel’s secret services and the inability of the international community to impose a solution that will form the basis for the Irene.
On the contrary, as noted in the analysis, despite what he says, Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, appears to not actually want the Palestinian issue to be resolved, as this would mean, in today’s terms, the creation of a Palestinian state in the lands he wants to control, such as East Jerusalem.
At the same time, special mention is made of the loss of civilians, with the available data showing that the Israelis have killed more civilians in Gaza in one month than Russia has in the war with Ukraine in over 1.5 years.
At the same time, the testimony of an elderly but gunpowder-smoked Israeli soldier reveals that the army does not trust Netanyahu, who is the only one who has not taken responsibility for what took place on October 7 with the murder of over 1,400 Israelis by Hamas.
Read the BBC analysis:
One of the first things to understand about the reporting, analysis, and commentary that has poured out since the October 7 attacks by Hamas is that no one knows the whole story. Not only is it, as always, difficult to penetrate the fog of war to understand what is happening on the battlefield. The new shape of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has yet to take shape.
Events are still moving quickly. Fears that the war could expand are real. The new realities in the Middle East exist, but what they look like and how they play out depends on how this war plays out for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.
Here are some things we know and some we don’t. The list is not exhaustive. Some mocked Donald Rumsfeld, US defense secretary at the time of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when he spoke of “unknown unknowns”. But in this part of the world, as in any other, they exist – and when they emerge, they can make a big difference.
1.
One thing is for sure that the Israelis support the military campaign to break the power in Gauze of Hamas and its smaller partner, Islamic Jihad. Their anger is driven by the shock of Hamas attacks, killing more than 1,400 people and the fact that some 240 hostages are still being held in Gaza.
I caught up with Noam Tibon, a retired Israeli army general, to hear how he and his wife descended on Nahal Oz, a kibbutz on the Gaza border, after the October 7 attack by Hamas. His mission, which was successful, was to rescue his son, daughter-in-law and their two young daughters who were in the safe room, hearing Hamas gunmen roaming around outside.
Tibon may be retired, but he’s a very fit 62-year-old. Armed with an assault rifle and a helmet taken from a dead Israeli soldier, he ended up leading a group of soldiers he had assembled in the chaos of that day, clearing the kibbutz and saving the lives of his family and many others.
The general was an old-school, straight-talking Israeli officer. “Gaza will suffer… no nation will agree that your neighbor will slaughter babies, women or people. Just like the British you crushed the enemy during WWII. This is what we have to do in Gaza. No mercy”.
With the innocent Palestinian civilians being killed? “Unfortunately, this happens. We live in a tough neighborhood and we have to survive… we have to be tough. We have no other choice.” Many Israelis echo his view that the deaths of Palestinian civilians are unfortunate, but are being killed because of the actions of Hamas.
2.
It is clear that Israel’s attack on Hamas is causing terrible bloodshed. The latest Palestinian death toll from the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry has topped 9,000 – of which around 65% are children and women.
It is unclear how many of the men killed were civilians or fighting for Hamas or Islamic Jihad. US President Joe Biden and the Israelis do not trust the ministry’s figures. But in previous conflicts, Palestinian casualty statistics were deemed accurate by international organizations.
A grim milestone is fast approaching. The United Nations (UN) says around 9,700 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion 21 months ago.
Some of the dead Palestinians could be members of Hamas. But even if that figure is as high as 10%, which is unlikely, it means Israel is on track to have killed as many Palestinian civilians in just over a month as Russia has killed in Ukraine since February 2022 .(The UN says its figures for Ukraine are incomplete and the actual number of civilians killed is likely higher, while in Gaza the death toll is also likely to be higher as many Palestinians are believed to be buried under damages).
The UN human rights agency said so many civilians have been killed and injured by Israeli airstrikes that it has serious concerns that the attacks are disproportionate and could amount to war crimes.
From the first days after the Hamas attacks, President Biden supported Israel’s decision to use military force to remove Hamas from power. But he also added the determination that it had to be done “in the right way”. He meant that Israel must abide by the laws of war that protect civilians.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv. Before taking off, he said: “When I see a Palestinian child – a boy, a girl – being pulled from the rubble of a collapsed building, it hits me in the stomach as much as if I see a child from Israel or anywhere else.”
I have covered all of Israel’s wars over the past 30 years. I don’t recall a US administration so publicly stating that Israel must abide by the laws of war. Blinken’s visit shows he believes Israel is not following Biden’s advice.
3.
Another thing we know for sure is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under a lot of pressure. Unlike Israel’s security and military chiefs, he has taken no personal responsibility for the catastrophic series of failures that left Israeli border communities virtually defenseless on October 7.
Last Sunday, October 29, he caused a stir when he posted a tweet blaming the secret services. Mr. Netanyahu deleted the message and apologized.
Three Israelis, a former peace negotiator, the former head of the Shin Bet (Israel’s internal intelligence service) and a technology entrepreneur, wrote an op-ed in Foreign Affairs magazine saying Mr Netanyahu should have nothing to do with war and what follows. The Israeli prime minister has loyal supporters, but has lost the trust of prominent figures in Israel’s military and security establishment.
Noam Tibon, the retired general who fought in the Nahal Oz kibbutz to save his family, compares Mr Netanyahu to Neville Chamberlain, the British prime minister who was forced to resign in 1940 and replaced by Winston Churchill.
Tibon told me: “This is the biggest failure in the history of the state of Israel. It was a military failure. It was an intelligence failure. And it was the failure of the government… The one really responsible – and all the blame rests on him – is the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu… He is responsible for the biggest failure in the history of Israel.”
4.
It is also clear that the old status quo has been shattered. It was unpleasant and dangerous, but it seemed to have a certain grimly familiar stability. Since the end of the last Palestinian uprising around 2005 a pattern has emerged that Mr Netanyahu believed could be sustained indefinitely. This was a dangerous illusion, for all concerned – Palestinians and Israelis.
The argument was that the Palestinians no longer posed a threat to Israel. Instead, it was a problem to be managed. Available tools include sticks, carrots and the ancient tactic of divide and rule.
Mr. Netanyahu has consistently argued that Israel has no partner for peace. The Palestinian Authority, which is Hamas’ main rival, is a deeply troubled organization and many of its supporters believe its aging president Mahmoud Abbas should step down. But he accepted the idea of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the 1990s.
“Divide and rule” for Mr. Netanyahu meant allowing Hamas to grow its power in Gaza at the expense of the PA.
While Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is always careful about what he says publicly, his actions over the years show that he does not want to allow the Palestinians to gain an independent state. This would entail ceding territory in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, which according to the Israeli right wing belongs to the Jews.
From time to time, Mr. Netanyahu’s statements are leaked. In 2019, multiple Israeli sources say he told a group of Likud MPs that if they opposed a Palestinian state they should support plans to pump money – mainly provided by Qatar – into Gaza. He told them that the deepening division between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank would make the creation of a state impossible.
5.
It is also clear that Israel, backed by the Americans, will not tolerate a deal that allows Hamas to remain in power. This guarantees a lot more bloodshed. It also raises big questions about what or who will replace them, which so far remain unanswered.
The conflict between Arabs and Jews for control of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean has been going on for over 100 years. One lesson of its long and bloody history is that there will never be a military solution.
In the 1990s, the Oslo peace process was established to try to end the conflict by creating a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital next to Israel. The last attempt to revive it, after years of stalled negotiations, was made during the Obama administration. It failed a decade ago and the conflict has been allowed to fester ever since.
As President Biden and many others have said, the only possible chance to avoid new wars is the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. This will not be possible with the current leaders on either side. Extremists, both Israeli and Palestinian, will do everything they can to destroy the idea, as they have been doing since the 1990s. Some of them believe they are following God’s will, which makes it impossible to convince them to accept a secular compromise.
But if this war doesn’t shock enough to break deep-seated prejudices and make the two-state idea viable, nothing will. And without a mutually acceptable way to end the conflict, more generations of Palestinians and Israelis will be condemned to more wars.
Source: protothema.gr
