Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) revealed its view on the direction of the baht this week. It tends to move in a 36.00-36.85 baht / dollar frame compared to the previous week. The baht closed higher at 36.32 baht / dollar after trading within a range of 36.27 to 36.82 baht / dollar. The dollar weakened against most major currencies except the yen last week. Initially, the euro and the pound hit their lowest levels in the past 24 and 37 years, respectively.
However, the dollar returned against several currencies after the European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, a record high. to fight inflation The Eurozone also faces recession risks and energy allocations in the coming winter. The ECB raised its deposit interest rate to 0.75% from 0%, while the ECB president said it could raise interest rates more than two rounds, but perhaps less than five. The ECB estimates that inflation will drop to 5.5% in 66 from 8.1% this year, while the Federal Reserve chairman said the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until it reaches the his goal. But it also gave hope for a soft landing: foreign investors sold net Thai shares for 5,204 million baht but bought bonds for 10,980 million baht.
The Global Markets Group expects markets to keep an eye on US inflation data for August. This is expected to slow to 8.0% from 8.5% in July. Such data could influence market expectations of Fed interest rates going forward. Investors expect an 88% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25% at its September 20-21 meeting, plus stronger signals from Japanese authorities on the possibility of interfering with the yen. Market participants may be more cautious about continuing to sell the yen for as little as 24 years.
due to internal factors The governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) stressed that the Thai official interest rate will gradually increase to adapt to the economic environment of each period. Meanwhile, inflation risks are mounting and the economy is in a recovery direction. GDP is expected to grow by approximately 3% and 4% respectively in 65 and 66, while the BOT will continue to oversee the economic recovery. This position supports the idea that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates in the remaining two sessions of this year and continue into the 1 / 66th quarter.
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