Disclaimer: The following overview does not claim to be complete. He is undoubtedly behind the actual course of events and will certainly be inaccurate in some respects. Many of the warring parties’ claims can only be confirmed with a delay, or not at all. Sources are usually listed by clicks in the text. The most important are the regular reports of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which is a rather conservative non-profit organization (more on Wikipedia), which publishes regular situation reports on the state of the Ukrainian battlefield.
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In the last days, heavy fighting has taken place on the main battlefield, ie on the eastern “Donbao” front. Russian forces have continued to attack cities you have heard about in recent days and weeks, such as Rubizne and Popasna.
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However, the Russian command uses a relatively small part of the forces gathered in the area during the attack. What is given is not clear: perhaps other units are not able to deploy, perhaps the Russian command in this case wants to give them enough time to prepare and replenish forces. In any case, the pressure on Ukrainian positions continues.
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For example, the Russians are advancing from two directions to the city of Slovyansk – from the northwest of Izjum and from the northeast of the city of Kreminna, which occupied last week. According to unverified information, Russian forces have advanced by as much as 20-30 kilometers in recent days, which would mean that they are about halfway between the two cities and Slovyansk.
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It is possible that he will try to close in a small cauldron Ukrainian defenders in the area north of Slovyansk. That would be a success for the invading forces, but we cannot assess whether the really attacking forces are striving for such a thing and will be able to achieve this goal.
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We follow the events in Ukraine in the online report:
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Russian troops also continued to attack several places in the area around Severodonetsk, occupied several settlements in the area and built a pontoon bridge over the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk.
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At the western end of the front, in the Kharkov area, Russian forces continued to shell the city throughout the weekend. According to available information, reinforcements from Russia also arrived in the area. This could indicate that the Russians will continue to keep up the pressure on the city. This, of course, will prevent the transfer of Ukrainian troops to other parts of the front.
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There has also been no major Ukrainian success in the area. East of Kharkov are Russian supply routes, through which both reinforcements and material travel to the units near Izjum. Ukrainian forces are in a position from which they could theoretically try to cross this supply artery if they attacked east from Kharkov.
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They also advanced eastward in several places last week, but there are no indications that a major Ukrainian offensive is taking place in the area. And even if, in order to cross Russian routes, for example in the area of Kupyansk, Ukrainian forces still lack to cover tens of kilometers. Russian concentration forces at Izjum will not disturb anything for the foreseeable future.
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On South
In Mariupol, according to available information, fighting continues within the Azovstal plant. Russian forces continue to shoot and bomb him. According to the Ukrainian claim the invading forces are also preparing for another large attack in order to occupy the underground bunkers where the defenders are hiding. But this information cannot be considered reliable.
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The attackers would undoubtedly suffer serious losses in such a case, while the Mariupol units can serve as reinforcements for other parts of the front. They have also appeared in recent days shots Russian troops, specifically the Marines, as they head from the destroyed city to other places on the battlefield. We have also confirmed that part of the separatist forces deployed in Mariupol already arrived to the Donetsk region.
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It is therefore equally likely that the Russian command in Mariupol will rather save its forces for other purposes. The defender can still be expected to try to starve.
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In the area around the city of Kherson, at the southwestern end of the front, the clashes took place only on a limited scale. Russian forces have not taken any major action since April 23. However, in the last week, the invading forces advanced a few kilometers north to the city of Huljajpole, which lies roughly between Kherson and Mariupol. Rather than an offensive from a new direction, it is more of a “defense defense” against a possible Ukrainian attack, or an attempt to secure an important N15 road in the area.
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Although Ukrainian troops are apparently slowly approaching Kherson, they have apparently not made large territorial gains. However, the Ukrainian command claims that its forces have achieved several interesting successes in the area. They did business supposedly a successful, apparently artillery, attack on the advanced command post of the Russian 49th Army, which was to be “against common sense” (writes Ukrainian intelligence) located near the front.
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Ukrainian sources as well claimsthat in the area in the south of Ukraine, about 100 Russian soldiers have died since the beginning after attacks by local resistance. However, it is difficult to judge how effective and widespread the resistance against the occupation really is. Of course, Russian forces do not admit any similar losses, independent media are not in place. In at least some areas, access to the Internet in general is limited.
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There are good reasons to doubt why the shift could be a significant factor. So far, for example, there has been relatively little time to organize such groups or to transport the material they may need. In the territories liberated by the Ukrainian army near Kiev, the Russian army carried out indiscriminate “filtration” of all persons. This is basically a euphemism for the elimination of mainly men who might somehow be associated with Ukrainian forces.
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We don’t have news from the south of the country. But in good mapped cases in the village of Bogdanivka in the Kiev region Russian soldiers apparently had orders to eliminate every little suspect. In one case, they apparently shot the family’s father (in front of the family, let’s say) on the grounds that “camouflage” was hanging in front of the house, which he said he wore to fish.
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According to the inhabitants of this Kiev satellite, the soldiers fired at everyone who was somehow connected with the Ukrainian state – police officers and employees of the rescue system. The Russians are apparently trying to reduce the likelihood of an armed resistance movement systematically since the beginning of the occupation. The potential Ukrainian resistance is therefore probably in a difficult situation.
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War in Ukraine
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