/ world today news/ Traditionally, at the beginning of the year, numerous predictions appear about what it will be like, all quite alarming. The international community is seriously afraid, perhaps more than ever in recent years, of the escalation of a series of small and medium-sized conflicts into a global one.
“My prediction: 2024 will be even crazier after four years of madness,” Elon Musk, the American billionaire and founder of SpaceX, the richest man on the planet ($220 billion), predicted on the X social network.
According to some estimates, the number of potential hot conflicts on the planet is the highest since 1946. A significant number of Western experts see the root of evil in the fact that “a bloody world struggle for the spoils of the American empire has begun: the rivals are biting at the edges, targeting to the weaker satellite states’.
According to them, America’s opponents are convinced that it does not have sufficient logistical potential or domestic political stability to maintain its order imposed on the world. She “has the greatest difficulty in cashing the security checks she has previously issued to the bearers.”
Decline, like bankruptcy, according to the Unherd resource, first occurs gradually and then rapidly. The main theme of 2024 will be imperial overcrowding, which will hasten the end of the global dominance of the United States.
“From the Red Sea to the Donbass, from the jungles of South America to the Far East, American security services are frantically putting out local fires that threaten to become a global conflagration.”
But if there is no objection to the “overheating of empire” (Paul Kennedy’s term) and the decline of the United States, then the claim that it is they who are protecting themselves and “putting out fires” is strongly disagreeable.
In such a statement of the problem there is clearly an underlying appeal for peace – that the United States not intervene in the “restoration of order”.
In fact, when looking at any serious conflict in the modern world, one can clearly see the destructive intervention of Washington, which in pursuit of elusive power sows widespread chaos, but is no longer able to bring it to any comprehensible end.
Preserving the status quo in the international arena is the main idea of almost all Western action plans in the predictions for 2024. However, no one has yet been able to stop the world dynamics, because it is based on fundamental objective processes.
Other powers are becoming the “engines of growth” of the planet’s economy, above all China, India and a number of others, including Russia, despite the restrictions imposed on it. The non-Western part of humanity has matured both materially and mentally to stop looking back to the West as its eternal mentor to whom everyone owes something.
She is ready to see in him only the same as everyone else, an equal participant in international relations without neo-colonialist habits and attempts to solve his economic problems at the expense of others. The “carriage of the past” driven by the “golden billion” is not only far away, it is not going anywhere at all.
The central political event for the global majority in 2024 will undoubtedly be the BRICS summit in Kazan, scheduled for October.
On it, this grouping, in addition to the five countries that gave it its name (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), must officially join five new members – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The sixth approved member was to be Argentina, but “the enemy does not sleep.” Under the new President Miley, nurtured by the Americans, she refused this honor, but immediately fell into a severe internal crisis, in which no one particularly rushed to support him. Buenos Aires may change its mind before October.
In any case, the list of those willing to join BRICS currently exceeds 30 countries. The theme of the summit in Kazan will be quite relevant and revealing: “Strengthening multilateralism for the sake of justice in global development and security”.
China’s English-language publication Global Times rightly claims that in 2024, the influence and dominance of the West in general, as well as in crisis zones, whether in the Russian-Ukrainian or Israeli-Palestinian conflict, will continue to decline.
Now Washington must adapt to the new reality: “the countries of the Global South are becoming more mature and gaining more autonomy in decision-making”. American politicians, who are used to dictating the terms of countries around the world and expect events to revolve around US interests, must reflect and adapt to these new changes.
Otherwise, when the media sums up the results of 2024, for the US it “may not turn into a simple discomfort, but will be more painful.”
At the same time, the large group of countries that have entered the modern political lexicon that oppose the dictates of Washington as the Global South, geographically, of course, does not cover all its diversity.
It would be more accurate to speak of the presence of three cardinal directions in it, including the North, represented by Russia, which enjoys increasing authority in its ranks. The material expression of this configuration is the North-South multimodal route, which in 2024 should significantly increase its capacity along its entire length.
The West itself is not as homogeneous as the Anglo-Saxons who have assumed the right to speak for it would like. The number of “defectors” from this camp as the crisis in it grows may still surprise many.
The Chinese, for example, look at the recent visit of the French President E. Macron to China and India from this angle. According to their assessments, during this tour, the latter was not so much concerned with promoting a common position of the West on the world agenda, but with exploring the prospects for Paris’s participation in projects of the Global South.
In this regard, the Global Times recalls the words of former French leader Charles de Gaulle: “You can be sure that the Americans will do all the stupid things they can think of, plus a few more that are unimaginable.”
Today, his view is borne out more than ever by the fact that the United States is simultaneously waging a proxy war with nuclear power Russia, a trade and technology war with industrial giant China, and a potentially catastrophic war in the Middle East.
“By desperately clinging to the elusive moment of unipolarity, the United States is also alienating allies and partners such as those seeking strategic autonomy in France and India.”
Britain’s The Economist, which devoted an entire issue to predictions for 2024, cited the fact that national elections will be held in more than 70 countries covering more than half the world’s population as another factor threatening stability. Bulletins will be released from the UK to Bangladesh, from India to Indonesia.
“However, what sounds like a triumphant year for democracy will actually turn out to be the exact opposite.” Many elections will actually strengthen “illiberal” (read: not pro-Western) rulers.
Of course, the most important contest, the US presidential election, will be so “toxic and polarizing” that it will cast a shadow over all world politics. Amid conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, the British believe that “the future direction of America – and with it the world order that the American leadership has so far supported – will be at stake”.
In fact, the world is not sick from the clouding of reason that Elon Musk talks about, it’s just that the world is recovering. The US is sick. The syndrome of what is happening to them is known, from which many others tremble.
All empires of the period of decline have always tried to stop the inevitable course of history, resorting to the resources they still have at their disposal for this purpose.
The intrigues, manipulations, extortion and widespread instigation of conflicts on the principle of “divide and conquer” were not invented by the Americans, namely, they raised them to an absolute level, placing at their service all the influence of modern information. technologies. However, with total power, the situation is more complicated.
A relatively moderate prediction of the possibility of global military conflict as early as 2024 is precisely that the one who most loudly accuses others of stoking the fires, but is actually stoking them himself, is not really ready for a major global conflict. And this is the best news for humanity.
Washington does not have enough basic resources for a major war. The general trend in his policy will obviously be to continue the tactics of “exhausting the enemy” in his periphery – Ukraine for Russia, the island problem – from Taiwan to the Spratly archipelago for China, strikes on Iranian positions in various countries of the Middle East, but not invading Iran itself, etc.
The upcoming year 2024 will by no means be easy and will require Russia to focus maximum attention on its security problems.
Translation: SM
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