The eyes of the world are on the Donbas, the eastern region of Ukraine, which Russia has now set its sights on. The original goal of bringing all of Ukraine to its knees has been pushed aside or at least parked by Moscow. Military experts expect the battle to escalate rapidly and see both Ukraine and Russia gearing up. “Both sides are, as we call it, topping up.”
Off-duty General Ton van Loon, who teaches at the military school in Hamburg, does not make predictions lightly. But after the invasion of Russia, now more than seven weeks ago, he already knew: it will not be easy for the Russians.
Indeed, a three-front war turned out to be too ambitious for President Putin and the bombing of cities, such as Mariupol, did not make the Ukrainians surrender either. Van Loon points out the contrast with the German bombardment of Rotterdam: “It took them too long in those May days on the Grebbeberg, so they bombed Rotterdam, after which the Netherlands surrendered.”
Putin hoped for such a scenario, Van Loon thinks. But the Russians should have known better, he said. He refers to the Nazi air raids on London in World War II. “The Germans thought they were breaking the will of the English with the bombing.” But Putin should also have known better from his own history: “It’s called Stalingrad.”
The Ukrainians will not give up, the general says confidently. “They stand with their backs against the wall, all Ukrainians for Putin are Nazis who must be destroyed. The mental component is extremely high.”
No military center of gravity
Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Land Forces, thinks so too. “The will to fight is always a decisive factor in military operations. Of course you have to have the right gear, but the will to fight is decisive.”
De Kruif says that both parties are “topping up”. Russia gets “all kinds of things from everywhere. Make no mistake about the resilience of the Russian army, they will have learned from their mistakes. The first phase failed for Russia because they had no military center of gravity anywhere. They do now, so let them they fall Kiev, that’s why nothing happens in Odessa for a while.”
But he also sees Ukraine rising and sending reinforcements to the east. “They move their chess pieces.”
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