A year after the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is still trying to conquer the Donetsk basin. The long-awaited Russian spring offensive appears to have begun and Ukraine is planning its own major assault. But it is unclear whether either camp can force a breakthrough.
The intensity of the Russian offensive seems to be not too bad. That is to say: the Russians have not come up with any major surprises and the Ukrainians are reasonably able to keep them at bay. Yet hundreds to thousands of soldiers on both sides are killed every day and many are injured.
The Russian attacks are mainly taking place in the eastern Donetsk basin, along the front line that runs from north to south. Approximately from Kreminna in Luhansk province, to Bakhmut, to the south of Donetsk province.
The Russians are currently trying to fight their way forward by ten points. The places that are currently under the heaviest fire are shown below.
Russia is making steady progress around Kreminna, probably with the aim of moving on to the slightly larger Kupiansk in Kharkiv province. Further south, it seems only a matter of time before Ukraine is forced to abandon the lingering winter battle over Bakhmut.
In other places, the renewed Russian efforts are not yet having much effect. Especially the well-defensible Vuhledar turned out to be quite a challenge. So many Russians died on the plains leading to that city that the British Ministry of Defense concluded that in recent weeks Russia had suffered its heaviest casualties since the first week of the war. In retrospect, the Russian offensive already started at the end of January with Vuhledar, many experts say.
Some Ukrainian officials feared a very different Russian move last winter, such as another major push into Kyiv from Belarus, but there are no signs yet.
The military relations between the two camps have shifted several times in a year of war, but they remain evenly matched. Ukraine started with a lead in available manpower, while the Russians had more equipment at their disposal. The Russian troops have now been replenished and the Ukrainians have more modern and better weaponry thanks to Western supplies.
2:23Attacking is more difficult than defending
The Russian army managed to stabilize the front last winter, thanks to the arrival of hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops. But just because Russia has more manpower doesn’t automatically mean it’s ready for an effective offensive.
Attacking is more challenging than defending. It requires more of everything: artillery fire to crush the Ukrainian positions, well-trained and armed soldiers to take them, and tanks and armored vehicles to support the advance.
Russia has expended much effort, lives and ammunition in recent months to take Bakhmut. That has not yet succeeded, despite the availability of conscripts. After a year of war, there are not enough non-commissioned officers available to direct those new soldiers. Presumably, the Kremlin does not suddenly have an unstoppable strike force.
During the winter, the Russians also made noticeably less use of their artillery. Estimates vary, but most Western experts agree that a shortage of ammunition is hurting Russia. According to the US, grenades are used that are forty years old. “Older than the conscripts they fire,” remarked The Economist finely up.
The British think tank IISS recently estimated that Russia has lost nearly 40 percent of its operational tank fleet since the start of the war. Satellite images of the Donetsk basin (currently one of the most scrutinized parts of the globe) do not indicate that the Russians have assembled a significant armored force for their spring offensive.
Spring or summer?
The Western tanks and armored vehicles being shipped to Ukraine are unlikely to be deployable in time for an offensive in the spring or early summer. So they won’t make a difference in the short term. They do offer Ukraine the certainty that possible losses will be made up.
Kyiv can therefore choose to let the Russian offensive take over and wait for the new weapons to arrive. This has the additional advantage that Russia will be tired of fighting by the time Ukraine launches a summer offensive.
A repeat of last summer’s Ukrainian lightning strike around Kharkiv seems unlikely. The Russian defense lines are now shorter, meaning they have less territory to defend. If there are gaps in those lines, the Russians can fill them with mobilized soldiers. Experts see the long and grueling battle for Kherson, which was liberated on November 11, as a more plausible model for future battles.
0:34Ammunition shortage is also a growing problem on the Ukrainian side. The country is firing grenades and missiles faster than the West can produce them. That production can be increased, but that takes time. Some experts think Ukraine’s guns will be forced into low-power mode in the next six to 12 months.
Ukraine has previously been wrongly underestimated, but the question remains whether it can militarily fulfill the desire to expel the Russians from all its territory (including Crimea). The fact is that the country is being destroyed more and more with every day that the war lasts. At the moment, Ukrainian public opinion is still clear: ‘We fight on, for the maximum: everything back, including Crimea’.
Offensive against offensive
The second year of the war begins, as winter draws to a close, with the warring parties’ plans of attack. Russia is the first to move. The question is whether it can bring together enough ammunition, troops and equipment to force a major breakthrough in 2023.
Ukraine is poised for a good time to launch an offensive of its own. Kyiv’s ambitions will also depend on the availability of resources to break through Russian lines.
The course of a war is difficult to predict. There are always surprises, and what you see from a distance doesn’t always match the reality on the battlefield. The first year of the Russian war against Ukraine has taught us that no matter how the situation on the front is described by strategists, stalemate or breakthrough, it is always accompanied by unimaginable violence and suffering. Unfortunately, this will not be any different in the second year.