In November, 28,756 mortgages were formalized in the colleges of registrars, which represents a new monthly maximum since February, maintaining the positive tone and gradual recovery of recent months; despite the fact that, in November, the effects of the second wave of the virus forced to take very restrictive measures in some autonomous communities. It should be noted that the comparison with respect to the end of 2019 is unfavorable (they fell by 2.4% year-on-year), since, at that time, the mortgage firm shot up punctually when the negative effect of the introduction of the Credit Law was exhausted in summer.
In the balance of the first eleven months of 2020, some 23,000 operations were stopped signing compared to 2019, which means a decrease in the number of mortgages of 7% accumulated since January. In this regard, it should also be noted that, in the accumulated amount of the year, some 50,000 more mortgages were signed than were canceled, so that the volume of outstanding mortgages continued to increase.
One more month, the market reading on the borrowed capital side is more favorable: + 3.0% year-on-year in November, to € 3,930 million, also the highest in the pandemic so far. In addition, this combination of greater reactivation in terms of capital than in terms of the number of firms is due to the increase in average amount per mortgage: + 5.5% year-on-year to 136,676 euros in November. It seems clear that, although the number of operations in the year as a whole has decreased, those that are carried out are being of a greater amount.
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Entre CCAA, the data for November is again very uneven: the insular regions, Cantabria and C. Valenciana would be the ones that fell the most, both in number and in mortgaged amount; compared to Aragón, C. La Mancha and P. Vasco, which have been where the market has performed the best. In principle, the different incidence of the recession on regional economies (according to their sectoral composition) explains, in part, the different behavior. The clearest case is that of the Balearic and Canary Islands, harmed by their strong dependence on the tourist sectors and foreign demand.
So far this year, volatility has been reduced. On the positive side, Asturias, Aragón, Extremadura and P. Vasco stand out, among others (C. León, in number of firms, and La Rioja, in borrowed capital, also improved), regions that continued a good performance in 2019. On the contrary, Navarra, Madrid, C. La Mancha and C. Valenciana stand out negatively, with a decrease in both number and amount. In these cases, these are regions that grew, to a greater or lesser extent, in 2019 and that, now, could be correcting previous excesses. The clearest case would perhaps be that of C. La Mancha, where the mortgage signing grew by more than 15% in 2019. Catalonia deserves a separate mention, where fewer operations are being signed, but those that are signed are for especially high amounts.
Finally, highlight again how registry changes have skyrocketed at 3-digit rates: + 220% year-on-year in November, driven by novations (+ 246%), undoubtedly picking up the upturn in mortgage renegotiations. Subrogations are also skyrocketing from both the debtors’ side (+ 133%) and the creditors (+ 148%).
On balance, the gradual improvement in the mortgage market suggests that housing demand continues to show no significant signs of weakness, at least in the short term. In the coming months, demand could be negatively affected by the successive waves of the virus and the restrictive measures taken by some Autonomous Communities, as well as by the economic recession.
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