MILANO – It still goes up Italian public debt, which in the new Bank of Italy survey at the end of August adds 8.5 billion compared to the previous month, amounting to 2,734.4 billion. The trend is mainly the result of the liquidity reserve that the Treasury has made: the PA in fact recorded a cash surplus (10.7 billion) which was more than offset by the increase in the Treasury’s liquidity (18.9 billion, 139.7) and the effect of the spreads and premiums on issue and redemption, the revaluation of inflation-linked securities and the change in exchange rates (€ 0.4 billion).
The portion of the pre-financing relating to loans disbursed by the European Commission on 13 August as part of the Recovery and resilience device also enters the debt, specifies via Nazionale (Recovery and Resilience Facility, RRF; 15.9 billion). At the end of the month, the loans (SURE and RRF) disbursed by the European institutions to our country amounted to a total of 43.4 billion.
Inflation runs at the top since 2012, in September annual price growth is 2.5%
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As usual, the Bank of Italy bulletin also updates the trend of tax revenues accounted for in the state budget which, again in August, amounted to 44.9 billion, a slight increase (0.6 per cent; 0.3 billion ) compared to the corresponding month of 2020. In the first eight months of 2021, tax revenues amounted to 288.2 billion, an increase of 11.5 percent (29.8 billion) compared to the same period last year. In addition to the more favorable macroeconomic scenario, this increase reflects the effect of some extraordinary factors, including the slippage of some taxes pertaining to 2020.
The alarm bells of the Confcommercio, who in his October economic analysis remarked that “after the deep upward fluctuations observed in spring and summer, the Italian recovery is starting a phase of normalization, even if further statistical rebounds are foreseeable for the end of the current year. “. The ICC index (Confcommercio consumption indicator) in September rose by 0.8%, but it is the lowest figure since March. According to the association, Confcommercio indicates the increase in inflation among the factors holding back consumption, which in the opinion of the organization “is not merely transitory”. Furthermore, “the delays in vaccination campaigns in disadvantaged areas of the world represent a real risk of not being able to eradicate the pandemic definitively and in a reasonable time”. “The lower tonicity of consumption associated with the persistence of dysfunctions on the production side, begins to determine more contained GDP dynamics. In October, according to our estimates, this indicator should record a growth of 0.1% over September and 4 , 1% in the annual comparison. Therefore, the final part of 2021, although characterized by widespread growth, seems to show the coexistence of a multiplicity of braking factors, also in relation to the international scenario, both for the bottlenecks present in the supply systems and for the resumption of the inflationary process, today no longer simplistically classified as merely transitory “.
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