HoonSmart.com >> “Bank of Ayudhya” expects the baht this week to trade within a range of 33.95-34.65 baht / dollar, hoping for a short-term recovery of the dollar.
Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) has a view on the direction of the baht this week. The baht this week tends to move within a range of 33.95-34.65 baht/dollar compared to last week. The baht closed at 34.23 baht/dollar after trading narrowly in the range of 34.20-34.39 baht/dollar, with the dollar depreciating against most major currencies except the yen last week. The dollar index hit its lowest level in nearly a year as economic data suggested inflationary pressures were bearish, although core inflation remained high.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 21-22 meeting showed that many policymakers were concerned that problems in the banking sector would push the economy into recession. The Fed expressed its support for further tightening of monetary policy. The futures contract reflects a 78% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates another 25bp to a range of 5.00-5.25% at its May 2-3 meeting.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its outlook for the global economy this year slightly to 2.8% as rising interest rates and banking turbulence add to uncertainties in the economy in addition to persistently high inflation and The impact of the war in Ukraine. Foreign investors bought Thai stocks net 420 million baht, but sold bonds 3,465 million baht.
for an overview this week. The Global Markets Group of Krungsri views that the market will follow China’s 1Q23 GDP data as well as European inflation. In the big picture, we see that even if the Fed raises interest rates in the next round, there is a high probability that it will be the last one of the cycle. While access to credit is significantly harder for small businesses and slower inflation going forward, it suggests the Fed will end interest rate hikes ahead of many major central banks.
“In this environment, we estimate that the dollar may retrace and recover limited against most currencies. Meanwhile, the move by the new Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor, which caused the market to postpone expectations that the BOJ would adjust yield curve control, put pressure on the yen to weaken only temporarily.
