Commercial bank credit to the non-financial private sector (consumption, companies and housing, mainly) grew 0.9 percent in April on an annual basis and in real terms (considering inflation), with which he broke a streak of almost two years of red numbershe pointed BBVA Mexico.
“It is the first real growth rate recorded since July 2020, thus concluding a stage of falls in the current balance that lasted for 20 months, a longer period than that observed during the financial crisis of 2009 (when the current portfolio was contracted for a period of 14 months), ”said the financial group.
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This behaviour was due to the growth recorded by the consumer and housing portfoliosa, which was partially overshadowed by that channeled to companies, which remains somewhat sluggish amid the weakness in investment.
Consumer credit registered a real annual growth of 3.9 percentincreasing its dynamism compared to the average of the first quarter of 2022 (1.9 percent).
“As for the consumer portfolio, the persistence of inflation could generate a downward adjustment in the trajectory of private consumption, representing a significant obstacle in the path of recovery of the real balances of this portfolio,” he said.
For your partthe housing portfolio maintained its dynamismregistering a real annual growth rate of 3.4 percent, equal to that observed the previous month.
The performance of this portfolio seems to indicate that the recovery of employment and the possibility of facing higher long-term interest rates could be encouraging agents to have this type of financing”, BBVA pointed out.
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Financing to companies, which represents 55.6 percent of the total portfolio, moderated its fall in April, registering a contraction in real terms of 1.3 percentlower than the contraction observed the previous month (3.3 percent).
At a monthly rate, it has already reached a real growth of 1.8 percent, the highest recorded since April 2020.
“The relative improvement observed in the investment indicators, which could be the source of a greater demand for this type of financing; however, the momentum is still insufficient to trigger a sustained recovery in the outstanding balance of this portfolio”, according to the analysis.
The financial group highlighted that, additionally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has aggravated bottlenecks in global supply chains.which constitutes an additional downward bias for the performance of credit to companies, due to the lower income flows expected as a result of said disruptions.
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