© Reuters. Is Baijiu welcoming the Spring Festival? “Teams dominate the screen” Spring Festival Gala, and the approval price “builds a bottom” Institutions say the industry may turn to β-type investment
Financial Associated Press, January 24th The Spring Festival is generally one of the most critical peak seasons for liquor consumption. Visiting relatives and friends to give gifts, and enjoying meals and drinks with relatives and friends have become the main consumption scenes. Now it is the Spring Festival, and this year’s Spring Festival holiday has obviously driven the flow of people back up. Data on the 23rd showed that the total number of passengers during the Spring Festival travel nationwide has exceeded 600 million.
In this context, a number of liquor brands stepped up their efforts to take advantage of the momentum to launch advertisements, and appeared in the CCTV Spring Festival Gala in various ways. The survey of brokerage channels also shows that the approval price of high-end and ultra-high-end liquor has risen steadily, and the price of loose bottles of some brands has risen higher than that of full boxes.
The Spring Festival Gala has always been a stage where brands from multiple industries compete to appear. In the just-concluded 2023 CCTV Spring Festival Gala,Liquor brands such as Wuliangye, Yanghe, Gujing Gongjiu, Shede Liquor, Moutai, Jinjiu, Fenjiu, Xijiu, etc. appeared at the party/advertising before the broadcast。
These brand “participation” identities include the exclusive interactive partners and cooperative brands of the Spring Festival Gala.theyNot only intensively appeared in the advertisements before the party, but also interspersed in multiple links during the partyFor example: title authorization, interactive lottery to give away their own products, the host’s New Year’s greetings, implantation of sketch lines, press screen prompts, and scrolling subtitles.
On the other hand, Zhongtai Securities’ research report on January 20 pointed out thatThe overall approval price of liquor before the festival bottomed out, and the high-end inventory dropped significantly month-on-month.In terms of high-end and ultra-high-end liquor, the batch price has shown a steady increase, and the inventory has risen slightly from the previous month. The price increase of Kweichow Moutai loose bottles is higher than that of full boxes. The main reason is that the Spring Festival is approaching and the demand for self-drinking is strong. After the arrival of the goods in January, the price still keeps going up. In terms of sub-high-end liquor, the wholesale price remained stable, and the channel inventory increased. In terms of real estate wine, the batch price remained stable, and the channel inventory remained at a reasonable level.
Analysts further pointed out thatOn the whole, high-end and real estate wines have taken the lead in recovering. In 2023, the growth path of liquor is clear, the demand is expected to improve month-on-month, and excess returns are expected to be obtained throughout the year. in:
On the demand side, gift-giving and banquet scenes are the first to recover in some areas, and it is expected that consumption scenes will further recover after the festival and channel replenishment will occur concurrently;
At the channel level, large distribution channel merchants still contribute more reservoirs, and the terminal is relatively cautious and confident to move closer to the top brands;
On the report side, the growth rate plan of leading companies in 2023 is active and highly certain, and they are off to a good start and proceed in an orderly manner.
At the same time, Zheshang Securities pointed out that,It is expected that in 2023, baijiu will welcome strong investment opportunities, and will shift from α-type investment in 2022 to β-type investment, focusing on the two logics of increased concentration and consumption upgrades. In the short term, in 2023, “high-end wines run through, regional wines-sub-high-end wines” are expected to rise in rotation. Currently, the allocation of “high-end wines + regional wines” will continue to be strengthened. It is recommended to deploy sub-high-end wines in advance from February to April. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to focus on 2023 & targets with certain medium and long-term fundamentals.
However, Kaiyuan Securities reminds,At present, the payment collection progress of the liquor industry is weak. Due to the early Spring Festival and the impact of the epidemic, the payment collection progress before the holiday is generally lower than that of the same period in previous years; and the dynamic sales performance is weak, mainly due to the impact of high-end business banquet scenes and the short-term drinking of consumers after recovery. Willingness to decrease。
