Mr. Poon Panitchpibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank revealed that the baht opened this morning (19 Sep. 2023) at the level of 35.67 baht per dollar. “Appreciated” from the previous day’s closing level of 35.72 baht per dollar. and look at the baht frame today It is expected to be at the level of 35.60-35.80 baht/dollar during the previous night. The value of the baht gradually strengthens (Oscillating in the range of 35.65-35.76 baht per dollar) following the weakening of the dollar. and the rebound of the gold price (which was supported by the contraction of both the US 10-year bond yield and the dollar) In addition, some market players may gradually sell short THB positions to make a profit (viewing the baht as depreciating) before realizing it. Results of this week’s FOMC meeting
As for the trend of the baht value, we think that market players may not be in a hurry to adjust their holding positions before learning the results of the FOMC meeting, giving the baht a chance to fluctuate sideways within the range. However, there are still factors that pressure the baht to weaken. live Especially the selling pressure of Thai assets by foreign investors. which is contrary to our prediction that Foreign investors will gradually return to buy more Thai assets. After knowing the results of the establishment of the new Thai government, the baht may not depreciate much. In the period before the results of the FOMC meeting are known, some market players who hold a short THB position (looking at the baht depreciating) may wait for an opportunity to sell to take some profits. This makes us assess that the baht resistance level may not yet exceed the zone of 35.80 baht per dollar. And because we evaluate that The baht may still not be able to clearly strengthen itself. Until the results of the FOMC meeting are known, we think that if the baht strengthens somewhat It may be stuck in the support zone of 35.50-35.60 baht per dollar.
Players in the US stock market Still in a wait and see situation, waiting for the results of the Fed’s FOMC meeting, although most market players think that The Fed may maintain its policy interest rate at this meeting and the Fed may maintain interest rates at the current level until May. In addition, the atmosphere in the US stock market also pressured by concerns that Consideration of the US government’s budget bill that are beginning to face problems may increase the risk of a Government Shutdown, causing the overall S&P500 index to close the market at only +0.07%.
As for the European stock market, the stoxx600 index turned around and dropped by more than -1.13%, pressured by the decline of stocks in almost every industry group. Amid concerns about the European economic outlook, if both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) continue to raise interest rates, To control the problem of inflation
On the bond market side, we think that market players may begin to gradually purchase more US 10-year bonds (including 10-year bonds in other countries) amid the views of market players that they estimate that The cycle of central banks raising interest rates may be nearing its end. This view has resulted in the US 10-year bond yield shrinking to the level of 4.30% again. However, we still view that the US 10-year bond yield may still fluctuate sideways. The US 10-year bond yield will clearly return to decline. You may have to wait and watch the Fed’s new Dot Plot at this week’s Fed meeting.
On the currency market side The dollar weakened slightly against major currencies. Following the pressure to take profits from Long USD positions before market players knew the results of the Fed meeting. In addition, the slight decline in the US 10-year bond yield also had some pressure on the dollar to shrink. As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) dropped to close to 105 points (range 105-105.4 points) in terms of gold prices. Some declines in both the US 10-year bond yield and the dollar. It has helped to support the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for delivery in December) to be able to gradually increase from the zone of 1,945 dollars per ounce to the level of 1,955 dollars per ounce again, which we view. Some market players may gradually sell gold for profit and this transaction flow could support the strengthening of the baht.
For today, market players will be keeping an eye on the Eurozone CPI inflation report to see if it will differ from previous forecasts or not. If the Eurozone’s Core CPI inflation rate remains above 5.3%, it may reflect that the ECB still has the opportunity to raise interest rates if necessary. We believe that the ECB may have finished its interest rate increase cycle. This is because the overall economy tends to slow down more. This may result in inflation gradually slowing down and eventually returning to the target.
2023-09-19 01:11:00
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