Start of the super election year
Mainz (dpa) – Start of the super election year 2021: In Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, millions of eligible voters are called on this Sunday to elect new state parliaments. In both countries victories are looming for the incumbents.
The CDU could get historically poor election results. The affair of business with corona protective masks by two Union members of the Bundestag also hit the CDU election campaigners in the final phase of the election campaign.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the Christian Democrats and their top candidate Christian Baldauf are, according to recent polls, just behind Prime Minister Malu Dreyer’s SPD, after what looked like a neck-and-neck race for a long time. A survey of the opinion research institute Insa on behalf of the “Bild” newspaper, which was published on Friday, showed that the SPD had a lead of 32 percent to 29 percent. The Greens and AfD would have 10 percent, the FDP 7, the Free Voters 4 and the Left 3 percent. In the state elections in 2016, the SPD achieved 36.2 percent, the CDU 31.8 percent, the AfD 12.6 percent, the FDP 6.2 percent, the Greens 5.3 percent, the Left 2.8 percent and the others Parties together 5.0 percent.
The incumbent’s lead over the CDU in Baden-Württemberg is even greater than in Rhineland-Palatinate. The Greens of Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann come after the Insa survey to an approval of 32 percent. Your current coalition partner, the CDU, has lost more than an earlier Insa survey from the first week of March: The party of top candidate Susanne Eisenmann now has an approval rate of 23 percent (minus 2 points). With such a result, it would do worse in the election than ever before in the country. The SPD and FDP each achieved 11 percent (SPD plus 1, FDP unchanged), the AfD 13 percent (plus 1). The left ends up at four percent and would thus miss the entry into the Stuttgart state parliament.
Because of the corona pandemic, the elections are a little different than normal. Strict hygiene regulations apply in the polling stations. In addition, the proportion of postal voters in both countries is likely to increase massively. In Rhineland-Palatinate, where there is Germany’s only traffic light government made up of the SPD, FDP and the Greens – the state returning officer is expecting a record for postal votes. With a turnout of around 70 percent, he assumes around two thirds of postal votes. In the Rhineland-Palatinate state election in 2016, it was just under 31 percent with a turnout of 70.4 percent. In Baden-Württemberg, too, significantly more votes were cast by post in numerous constituencies a few days ago than in the entire state election five years ago. It is expected that every second person nationwide fills out their ballot paper at home and not at the polling station. In 2016, around one in five voters (21 percent) across the country cast their vote by post in the state elections.
Even the election campaign turned out to be significantly different than usual. The corona restrictions have made an election campaign with home visits, information stands and large events in halls and squares impossible.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210314-99-813181 / 2
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