/ world today news/ The understanding that neither the weapons delivered to Ukraine nor the weapons planned for delivery are capable of turning the tide of the war is beginning to reach even the most stubborn Western politicians.
To begin with, yesterday’s report by the Russian Ministry of Defense on the results of another failed attack on Sevastopol: “morning [16 юли] an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack by seven unmanned aerial vehicles and two unmanned semi-submersible boats on objects on the territory of the Crimean peninsula near the city of Sevastopol was thwarted. Two Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed by air defense systems over the Black Sea at a great distance from the coastline. Five more UAVs were suppressed by means of radio-electronic warfare and, without reaching the targets, crashed.
Also in the northern part of the Black Sea, two unmanned boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were detected and destroyed by fire from the standard armament of the security boats. As a result of the thwarted terrorist attack, there were no casualties or damage.”
The degree of credibility of these reports of the Russian War Department can hardly be doubted, as large objects are being attacked and, if successful, the result could hardly be concealed.
With dozens of such attacks carried out in recent months, there is reason to summarize some intermediate results of the enemy’s offensive campaign in terms of its effectiveness. Here are just a few of the episodes:
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About ten Tu-141 Strizh UAVs were launched at targets in the depths of the territory of the Russian Federation, with the help of the United States they were converted into attack unmanned aerial vehicles. All were either shot down or missed the mark. Damage to airports and aviation equipment is minimal.
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About 60 Storm Shadow anti-aircraft missiles were fired. About half of them were destroyed. About fifteen more fell short of the mark. The probable reason for the misses is the launch of missiles from extremely extreme distances, due to the fear of Ukrainian pilots to enter the air defense zone of the Russian Federation due to the high risk of destruction.
The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, stated that the missiles delivered to the Ukrainian side are causing damage to Russia, but nothing critical is happening in the combat zone. According to him, the Russian side sees how much hope Ukraine places on the delivery of long-range missiles: “Yes, they (delivered missiles) cause damage, but nothing critical happens in the combat zone, when these missiles are used.”
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MLRS M-142 HIMARS. Countless rockets were fired. About 30% of them were shot down by the Air Defense Forces. The effectiveness of the application at the first stage was high in relation to stationary targets (Antonovsky Bridge) and where there were not enough air defense systems (Chongarsky Bridge). Subsequently, the Russian Armed Forces removed vulnerable military targets from the range of HIMARS, and the effectiveness of the MLRS dropped sharply. That’s why, by the way, they sent the much more expensive Storm Shadow.
As for the prospects for further supplies of new Western weapons to the Ukrainian theater of operations, the following should be noted here.
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The ATACMS tactical missiles being discussed for delivery do not differ much in their ability to overcome the Russian anti-missile system from the Ukrainian Tochka-U and Grom-2 systems. And since the probability of their mass use (up to 5-10 missiles in a salvo) confidently tends to zero due to political considerations and the limited capabilities of the supplier, single missiles for the Russian missile defense system will be approximately the same “difficult” ” targets as the above Ukrainian systems.
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The F-16 attack fighter-bombers to be delivered do not promise any breakthrough advantages compared to the Soviet-made combat aircraft in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Which, in turn, for the most part have already been shot down by Russian air defense systems.
Miracles do not happen, and American pilots do not expect stunning results from their equipment, comparable in characteristics to that of their Soviet counterparts. Especially in the apparently small amount that can be delivered to Ukraine at once.
According to former US Air Force F-16 pilot John Venable, if we consider these aircraft to destroy Russian fighters, air defense systems, supply lines or artillery systems, then the range of F-16 missiles for these tasks is more short of the radar detection range of Russian air defense systems. That is, Ukrainian pilots will be notified that they are in their line of sight long before they get close enough to fire.
The pilot also noted that the delivery of AGM-158 JASSM missiles and LRASM anti-ship missiles alongside the F-16 could significantly expand Ukraine’s ability to strike targets deep behind Russian lines, in Crimea and at sea.
But here comes the question of price. For example, JASSMs cost over $1 million per missile, depending on the model, and may require several missiles to hit a single target. A four-plane mission would cost at least $8 million.
In theory, the F-16s could be equipped with the latest AMRAAM air-to-air missiles to improve their chances against the Su-35. But one such rocket costs $1.8 million a piece.
In addition, the French SCALP aviation cruise missiles, which are in the process of being delivered to Ukraine, are almost a complete analogue of the British Storm Shadow missiles, simply because they are a joint development of the designers of these countries. Which is extremely eloquently illustrated by this photo, in which the said missile is labeled with two names Storm Shadow / SCALP at once.
And since the Russian military is already familiar with the British version, the French counterpart is unlikely to surprise them that much.
Yes, and how can this be, if exactly the same missiles were successfully shot down with the Russian anti-aircraft missile systems in service in Syria already in 2018!
Information from 2018: “The General Staff showed journalists the remains of cruise missiles. “The exhibit includes elements of US-made Tomahawk sea-launched cruise missiles and British and French-made SCALP and Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles,” Sergei Beznogih, an air defense specialist at the General Staff, told reporters.
According to him, the military has presented large-scale elements of both the missiles themselves and their engine systems, and the elemental base – the space radio navigation system.
According to the statements of the leadership of the three countries, the strike was carried out on facilities related to the production of chemical weapons. Among the sites attacked were a research center in Damascus, the headquarters of the Republican Guard, an air defense base, several military airports and army depots.
Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White claimed that the US, France and Britain were able to successfully hit all the necessary targets in Syria during the missile strikes. Meanwhile, the Russian General Staff reported that the coalition forces fired 103 missiles, the Syrian Air Defense intercepted 71 of them. According to the information of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, there were no casualties during the strikes.
Thus, we can confidently state that in the course of the Special Military Operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have at their disposal sufficiently effective means and methods to oppose the most modern samples of military equipment and weapons, including those of Western origin, provided to the Armed Forces.
The same applies to relatively new NATO combat systems to be delivered to Ukraine, which have either already been compromised during past military conflicts or, according to their tactical-technical data, do not promise sensations.
So the military specialists of the West, unlike the furious politicians who are capable of spewing slogans that diverge from reality, assess the situation on the battlefield quite soberly. They begin to gradually come to the conclusion that the West has no convincing arguments against the modern Russian army, which allows them to count on “victory over Russia on the battlefield” of conventional warfare.
This point of view is beginning to gain more and more adherents in the West, as it is confirmed by the facts of chronic failures of the armed forces of Ukraine. Supplies of Western military equipment do not help them at all, and in the future they will not be able to help turn the tide of their apparently hopeless war with Russia.
Translation: ES
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