Back in a month in Brisbane, can Rafael Nadal still find his best level?

« I internalized what I have done my whole life, which is to demand the maximum. And what I really hope for now is to be able to not demand too much and accept that things are going to be very difficult at the beginning. » At the dawn of what should be the greatest and final challenge of his extraordinary career, Rafael Nadal has hidden neither from himself nor from his (very many) hopeful admirers the scale of the challenge that awaits him, Monday in a video. His big return to Brisbane in a month (to be followed on Eurosport from December 31, 2023 to January 7, 2024) could well be painful.

In other words, to hope to once again be worthy of the nicknames that forged his legend – the “Bull of Manacor” or the ogre ogre – he will probably have to deny his deep nature which is to do everything in the background, from less at first. . Is the Mallorcan capable of it? At 37 years old, he certainly does not lack experience in the perilous exercise of the ascent and this constitutes a significant asset.

Since 2003 and his Grand Slam debut at Wimbledon, Nadal has withdrawn from a Major 14 times, not counting withdrawals or retirements during tournaments. This demonstrates that injuries and their management have always been part of the equation of his career. But these problems did not systematically cause long periods of downtime. In terms of remarkable periods of unavailability, two precedents stand out: 223 days (i.e. 7 and a half months) between Wimbledon 2012 and Vina del Mar 2013 and 154 days (i.e. five months) between Washington 2021 and Melbourne 2022. And an observation s imposed in both cases: the backlash had been exceptional.

• In 2013, Nadal won his second tournament, winning a total of 10 titles including 2 Grand Slams (Roland-Garros, US Open).
• In 2022, he triumphed in his return tournament, winning 4 titles including 2 Grand Slams (Australian Open, Roland-Garros)

While his last miraculous revival was only less than two years ago, a certain optimism does not seem misplaced at first glance about his ability to play at the highest level again. But on closer inspection, the picture is less idyllic. Firstly because at this stage of his career, the years that pass count double. At 37, the Majorcan no longer has the same resources as at 35, with physical alerts increasing since 2022 (rib, left foot, abdominals and hip).

Then because this time, he hasn’t played for almost a year, with a major consequence: his fall in the rankings. Now 664th in the world, while he was 5th in Vina del Mar in 2013 and 6th in Melbourne in 2022, Nadal will certainly benefit from a protected ranking but not from the top seed status which assured him more affordable matches during his returns. . the previous ones. However, to find an interesting level of play, or even the best, he will have to play a series of matches.

And this is perhaps why Nadal chose to resume so early, at the risk of losing quickly during his first outings. By launching from the start of the season, he has given himself a certain margin between now and spring on clay, which should constitute his last major career objective with the dream of a 15th title at Roland-Garros and games. The Paris Olympics on his favorite surface. Because if the Majorcan can accept having difficulties on hard ground, he will necessarily be more ambitious in his kingdom.

It is in this sense that we can interpret the end of his video message on Monday. “ In the not so distant future things may change if I keep the desire, the work ethic and if the physique responds, of course“, he estimated. Nadal knows that if his body leaves him alone, he will gradually be able to push his limits, become demanding again and play with the intensity that could allow him to regain full confidence. And then, another feat. would perhaps not be so unthinkable, although improbable.

The extent of his hegemony on Parisian clay – 14 titles, 112 victories for 3 defeats and a statue in his likeness – has so deeply marked people’s minds that, even if his aura is damaged by his long absence, Nadal could well do so. enjoy. . Nick Kyrgios believes in it in any case, as he explained as an exceptional consultant for Tennis Channel during the last Masters.

« I think Nadal wins the majority of his matches at Roland simply by entering the court. You know, I played it one year in Rome as a best of three sets, and I couldn’t walk the next day. So you imagine in five sets… I think most players don’t want to see that at Roland Garros“, he considered. Let us also remember that Roger Federer reached the quarter-finals of his last Wimbledon in 2021 when he was far from being 100% physically, even if his tennis was undoubtedly less demanding from this point of view.

And the Australian insists on the simple pleasure of seeing the Majorcan at work again: “ I don’t really have any expectations in terms of results, I just want to see him play again. The tennis world misses him. We had some great battles on the courts. I just want him to play as long as possible. It’s still surreal to me that Federer is no longer here » These legends have trivialized miracles so much in recent years, so why not hope for a new one? The game is worth it, no matter if this final attempt ultimately ends up being a farewell tour.