What you should know
- According to the CDC, the Omicron variant, BA.2, now accounts for 84% of COVID cases circulating in the New York area right now, up from 39% two weeks ago. Now also the dominant strain in the US (72.2%)
- Meanwhile, New York City’s average daily caseload is up 39% from the previous four-week rolling average, but COVID hospitalizations and deaths remain in a steady decline as the recovery continues.
- Still, the latest case increases are a fraction of what they were during Omicron’s rise and peak in January, which is why officials urge context when assessing the numbers. Testing is also up slightly again.
—
The so-called Omicron BA.2 variant, which is driving a new surge in COVID cases locally, nationally and abroad, now accounts for 84% of the virus circulating in the New York region. A prevalence significantly higher than its national impact and a marked increase in the past week, according to new data released by the CDC on Tuesday.
For the New York area, which for CDC purposes includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands along with New York state, that figure of 84% is up from 71% last week and 52% % of the previous week. It represents only positive COVID-19 samples that are genetically sequenced to isolate variants, meaning the true prevalence is likely to be considerably higher, experts said.
New York, for example, has sequenced about 3% of all positive samples sent to labs over the course of the pandemic, CDC data shows. That is a lower percentage than the percentage among some of the states with the highest volume of cases during the pandemic, such as California (5.18%), but higher than Florida (2.37%).
In New York City, 14% of all positive samples were genomically sequenced in the last week of data, continuing an upward trend in that regard. It’s not clear from the city’s Health Department data page how many have been cumulatively sequenced.
The state also stepped up its variant policing efforts before the Omicron wave began late last year. New York’s forward case rates have seen an increase in recent weeks, but it’s unclear what (or what) is responsible.
The increase could reflect decreased effectiveness of the vaccine among some who have not yet received their booster dose or another cause. More importantly, the age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness rate in terms of new hospitalizations has not changed in a statistically significant way.
Nationwide, less than half a percent of the nearly 80 million COVID cases in the United States to date have been genomically sequenced and made publicly available, CDC data show, likely reflecting the exhaustive process. what the job entails.
As of Tuesday’s update, BA.2 is 72.2% of all national COVID-positive samples genomically sequenced in the latest two-week data period, up from 55% in the CDC’s previous weekly update and 35% % in the previous.
BA.2 is said to be inherently more transmissible than the original Omicron strain, perhaps the most contagious form of the virus to date, according to a WHO official, but it has not been scientifically linked to more severe cases or shown to be more resistant to the vaccine by this point, which is cause for caution but not alarm, experts say.
Reported symptoms are often exceptionally mild, such as those common with a harmless cold that would not otherwise shut people out. However, in the case of BA.2, positive tests could last for days, complicating matters for a city – and a country – fervently trying to reassert its footing amid the pandemic recovery effort.
The New York City Department of Health has yet to isolate BA.2 from the original strain on its variant tracking page, and Department of Health data indicates that omicron still accounts for 100% of tested cases to date. Tuesday. Officials acknowledge the subvariant in the text, writing: “Omicron remains the dominant variant in New York City, with its BA.2 subvariant accounting for a modest but growing number of cases in the city.”
Notably, the dominance of the strain comes at a time when New York City is testing for variants at an all-time high, isolating strains in approximately 14% of positive samples on a weekly basis. That’s an increase of 12% from last week and at its highest average so far this year, reflecting growing trends in overall testing, Health Department data shows.
Meanwhile, the five-borough daily case average is up 39% over the previous four-week rolling average, but reflects only an increase of 391 total cases in terms of raw numbers. COVID hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline.
Those mobile metrics are down 39% and 50% compared to the previous four-week averages, and while hospitalizations and deaths are known lagging factors, officials say they don’t expect any new spikes in severe cases.
Why not? Well, the latest peak cases are markedly down from what they were just two months ago, for example. The city’s rolling case average of 1,391 positives is up from last week’s 1,143 positives, but 75% lower than the 5,503 average reported on Jan. 26.
Manhattan has seen the highest jumps in transmission in recent weeks, with Battery Park City leading the list of best neighborhoods in terms of mobile positivity percentage and the borough accounting for 80% of the top 10 in that regard.
Again, the raw data gives a more complete picture. In the Battery Park City zip code with the highest mobile positivity rate in the city right now, that’s an increase of 24 cases.
Ultimately, officials say dominance of BA.2 was expected and some other variant of COVID is expected to take its turn as well. That doesn’t necessarily exacerbate community risk. In the city, the level of alert is still “low”. It doesn’t get any lower.
Nationwide, only 17 of America’s more than 3,200 counties are considered “high” risk by the CDC, according to its recently released community-level threat tracker. Nearly 95% of US counties, including the five in New York City and all of the neighboring states of New Jersey and Connecticut, are also considered low risk.
–
