19 September 2023, 10:27 GMT
Updated 51 minutes ago
On Tuesday, Azerbaijan announced the start of “local anti-terrorist measures” in Nagorno-Karabakh. As stated in a statement by the country’s Ministry of Defense, their goal is to ensure the safety of Azerbaijani military personnel and restore the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the region.
“In order to ensure the provisions of the tripartite statement, suppress large-scale provocations in the Karabakh economic region, disarmament and withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from our territories, neutralize their military infrastructure, ensure the safety of the civilian population returning to the territories liberated from occupation, civil servants involved in construction “Restoration work and our military personnel, as well as the restoration of the constitutional system of Azerbaijan, local anti-terrorist measures have been launched in the region,” the statement says.
In an interview with Politico, Ikmet Aliyev, adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the international agenda, said that the local Armenian population was notified of the upcoming operation via SMS messages. They are advised not to approach military targets that could become a legitimate target for destruction.
Former minister of the unrecognized republic Ruben Vardanyan reports that at these moments Nagorno-Karabakh is being subjected to massive artillery shelling.
In his telegram channel he called The government of Armenia must immediately respond to what is happening: “The leadership of Armenia must recognize Artsakh and join in the protection of its citizens! We all must defend our Motherland!”
According to Azerbaijani media reports, the airspace is closed to Armenian aviation.
“The Russian Federation calls on the conflicting parties to stop the bloodshed in Karabakh and return to a diplomatic settlement,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
According to her, the peacekeepers are in contact with representatives of the Armenians of Karabakh and the Azerbaijani authorities for a ceasefire.
Hint of settlement
Photo caption,
The last time large-scale humanitarian aid was delivered to Nagorno-Karabakh was on August 30 this year.
This week the situation in the region seemed to begin to level off somewhat.
The day before, a convoy of the International Red Cross delivered humanitarian aid to Stepanakert: medicines, food, and basic necessities.
“These deliveries of desperately needed supplies are an important step forward, and we urge the parties to begin direct negotiations and focus on ways to increase the flow of humanitarian supplies to the region’s people. The United States remains committed to supporting the efforts of Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve long-standing challenges and achieve a decent and lasting peace,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday.
Blinken noted that the delivery of humanitarian aid was the result of recent negotiations between him and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Video caption,
Military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Video
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh began to deteriorate after Azerbaijani activists blocked the Lachin road, the only transport route connecting Karabakh and Armenia, in December 2022.
Last spring, the Azerbaijani side installed an official checkpoint there, after which the situation in the region became catastrophic.
Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh published videos of completely empty store shelves.
It is reported that cargo delivery was carried out simultaneously along the temporarily opened Lachin road and through the Adagam region of Azerbaijan.
The Karabakh conflict has been ongoing since 1988, including two hot stages – the First Karabakh War (1992-94) and the Second Karabakh War (2020).
Armenia and Azerbaijan claim their rights to own the territory.
According to rough estimates, as a result of the two wars, about 32 thousand people died on both sides. Thousands are considered missing.
Political consequences
Famil Ismailov, BBC editor
Azerbaijan’s military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh should serve as a sign to all players that Baku can establish its sovereignty over the region, if necessary, by force, and at the moment no one will interfere with it.
Reports that the general staffs of Azerbaijan and Turkey discussed the situation, as well as statements by Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova that Russian peacekeepers did not know about the operation until recently, clearly demonstrate the real authority in the region of the two powers directly involved in it.
Photo caption,
On September 19, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced the start of local “anti-terrorism” measures against the Armenian military in Nagorno-Karabakh
Why did Azerbaijan need to conduct an active military operation right now? Firstly, with the arrival of winter it is much more difficult to conduct military operations in the mountains. Secondly, from Baku’s point of view, the situation was increasingly out of the control of the peacekeepers, with the Armenians preparing combat positions and mining roads. For Azerbaijan, the “Artsakh Defense Army” is armed militants and terrorists.
Whether it will be possible to force the Karabakh Armenians to come to terms with the current situation the way the Armenian leadership did and accept the conditions of Azerbaijan is a matter of time. Transport corridors are blocked, and it is impossible to transport goods to Karabakh without approval from Baku.
Attempts in Karabakh to conduct business “as before” (they say that there is a de facto government, with all the necessary functions – government, army, etc.) relied on the presence of peacekeepers, but hopes for Russian guarantees melted away with the beginning of Russian aggression in Ukraine. If immediately after the 2020 war the peacekeeping command made efforts to establish a dialogue between the parties, then later they came to naught.
Baku’s military operation is also important for domestic audiences: here it is seen as revenge for the recent deaths of construction workers and military personnel who were blown up by a mine.
In fact, today Armenians and Azerbaijanis live in two parallel realities, which each of the two peoples created for themselves. In one reality: Azerbaijan and Turkey are trying to organize a new genocide and it is necessary to “give a worthy answer.” In another: after 30 years of humiliation, the moment of “just retribution” has come.
In both realities there is no room for the pain and dreams of the other side. This is how ethnic cleansing is born.
Complete defeat or ultimatum?
Ilya Abishev, BBC military commentator
Armenian forces say they are succeeding in repelling attempts to break through the contact line in Karabakh.
However, judging by video footage and reports from the field, at the initial stage of military operations, the Azerbaijani army is aimed not so much at a ground operation, but at suppressing the enemy’s air defense system. Strikes are primarily aimed at anti-aircraft missile systems – radars and launchers, as well as electronic warfare systems.
Photo copyright: Reuters
Photo caption,
Protests against the shelling of Karabakh began in Yerevan
Baku has a huge arsenal of means to accomplish this task. It has both operational-tactical missile systems and attack drones – such as the Turkish Bayraktar and Israeli Harop missile aircraft, which were actively used during the Second Karabakh War. There are front-line aviation with air-to-ground missiles, as well as artillery occupying commanding heights in Shusha and other areas conquered by Azerbaijan three years ago.
Disabling the air defense system of the Armenian forces, consisting of outdated Soviet-made equipment, would mean Azerbaijan gaining complete air superiority. In this case, at the next stage, his aircraft can easily destroy the entire military infrastructure of the enemy and put him in a hopeless situation. At the final stage, a ground operation can be carried out with a predictable result.
Given the isolation of Armenian forces in Karabakh and the significant military advantage of Azerbaijan, all these stages may be fleeting. The only question is what plans the Azerbaijani leadership is making for the current military operation.
It is possible that Baku will not bring matters to a complete defeat, but will issue an ultimatum to the Armenian forces, the terms of which will be more stringent than the peace agreement concluded three years ago.
2023-09-19 14:48:45
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